John Rapley

MARSEILLE, France:

Last Friday, French President Jacques Chirac opened a conference on the environment in Paris. Timed to coincide with the release of the latest IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report, the conference sought to sharpen the focus on global warming. At its launch, Chirac called for a global cultural revolution to combat climate change.

The IPCC document certainly threw down the gauntlet. The panel, probably the most respected gathering of climate scientists in the world, had in previous reports left a margin of error about the causes of global warming. No longer. Where once they left open the possibility that climate change might not be a result of human activity, the scientists are now declaring with almost complete confidence that global warming has resulted from greenhouse gas emissions.

We've all heard the warnings, and seen early signs, of what's to come: rising sea levels, harsher storms, droughts alongside floods, desertification in some regions coupled with benign warming in others. And the solution is clear: reduce carbon emissions.

But simple is not easy. In a world where humans have grown accustomed to rising living standards, calls to cut greenhouse gas emissions have not readily translated into action. Politicians love to talk up the environment. Sadly, their actions have to date largely belied their words.

In this respect, President Jacques Chirac is no exception. His rhetoric on the environment has been as inspiring as he can make it (which, admittedly, might not be a great deal), but French actions have been less than exemplary. As a report last week in Le Monde pointed out, French carbon emissions have been stabilised only by recourse to nuclear energy, a power source with its own environmental drawbacks. Beyond that, the cultural revolution still lies in wait.

Polluting at will

And for as long as the talk continues, the situation will only worsen. I was reminded starkly of this on my recent trip to China. Where China once consumed little of the planet's energy supply, now it is polluting at will. Air quality in some of its industrial cities is abysmal. In Beijing, the capital, a sea of automobiles - most occupied by one person - causes thick traffic jams. And on even the humblest of homes, one sees ubiquitous air conditioners: a symbol of prosperity which is also greatly driving up energy demand (and with it, greenhouse gas emissions).

It is a sad measure of the cravenness of Western leaders that George W. Bush - who has crusaded against efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions - may be the most honest among them. His position is clear: we can either choose the environment, or growth. He says we can't have it both ways, and he's probably right.

Despite the explosion of green technology, there is no evidence that its application will suffice to curb greenhouse gas emissions. On the contrary, in the absence of policy changes, improved energy efficiency will merely translate into cost savings. These in turn will be passed on to businesses and consumers. And that will mean more money to spend on all sorts of new, energy-consuming toys. That has been the record so far.

Western governments have been hoping that, somehow, developing countries could be persuaded not to develop to the point they have. Tell that to the Chinese. At some point, some visionary will have to take up Mr. Bush's adage - your money or your environment - and make the argument that the environment merits our sacrifices. Until then, initiatives like Mr. Chirac's will provide good photo ops; and in his case, perhaps a doomed attempt to claim some legacy for a presidency that many French people would say has already failed.