Dan Rather

Those who pay only passing notice to the former Soviet Union may believe that Russia, like the Cold War, is a problem solved - The Iron Curtain fell, and democracy took root in the Russian steppe - end of story. And even if Vladimir Putin shows some authoritarian tendencies now and then, it's nothing Russian democracy can't fix, right?

Well, it might not be that simple. In fact, a number of troubling signals emanating from Russia suggest that it will not be.

The Russian Constitution, adopted after the fall of the Soviet Union, limits the president to two consecutive four-year terms. And though some have proposed changing that constitution, President Putin has repeatedly refused that proffered crown, insisting that the constitution should not be altered to allow him to stay in office. So, with apologies to Shakespeare's Mark Antony, is Putin ambitious? And if so, where do his ambitions lie?

Restoring Mother Russia

The second question may be the easier one to answer. With canny diplomacy abroad, ruthlessness at home, and high oil and gas prices to buoy the once-foundering Russian economy, Putin has sought to restore Mother Russia to its former stature. On his terms, he has largely succeeded. Under Putin, Russia has forged an alliance with bordering colossus China, has established itself as an alternative voice on geopolitical matters, and has once again consolidated state and economic power in the Kremlin.

This last part is key. The Russian Government has come to own a substantial stake in the formerly privatised Gazprom, one of the world's richest corporations and the supplier of at least 25 per cent of the European Union's natural gas. Gazprom's chairman of the board, Dmitri Medvedev, is also first deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Government. And, with the Kremlin's help, Gazprom has expanded its control over Russia's gas reserves, the largest in the world. Through Gazprom, the Kremlin has its hands on Europe's gas taps, and a sizeable influence on worldwide fuel prices. Which brings us back to the first question: Is Putin ambitious?

The death in Britain of former Russian spy, Alexander Litvinenko, of radiation poisoning is but the latest in a string of untimely ends met by outspoken critics of the Putin regime. Others, notably Russian oligarchs who have dared to oppose Putin publicly, have had criminal charges brought against them. Meantime, actual and virtual state control of the airwaves, combined with systematic intimidation of journalists, has put a Siberian chill on news not sanctioned by the Kremlin. Whatever is behind these circumstances, the message is clear: Russians defy Putin at their own risk.

Blessing or curse?

Democracy can be a blessing to the people, and it can be a fig leaf for the state. In Russia's democracy, President Putin nominates governors and the mayors of Russia's two largest cities. And now, as Russia prepares for regional elections this year, opposition parties are finding themselves barred from the ballot on a variety of technicalities. Looking ahead to 2008, one might ask whether Russia is gearing up for an election or the carefully engineered 'succession' of a Putin ally, such as early front-runner Medvedev. As Putin himself put it last fall, "Even having lost the powers and the levers of presidential power ... I will be able to exert influence on the life of our country and guarantee its development."

It is a truism of our age that democracies are desirable in the realm of foreign relations, because democracies - so it is said - do not start wars with their neighbours. Will historians look back on this era and note that while The United States sought to build democracy in Iraq, meaningful democracy was lost in nuclear-superpower Russia?