Ian Boyne, Contributor

A year ago today, this country experienced a category 5 hurricane force named Portia, flooding most of our homes with a surge of hope, creating a watershed in our political history. A landslide of expectations occurred throughout the island as we all witnessed the watermark event of the election of our first female part president.

I captured the historic moment in a column written the week after Landmark Sabbath. "All across this country last Saturday hope was lit, resurrecting the sagging spirits of Jamaicans who had become weary and disillusioned with a largely uninspiring and divisive politics. The reports swapped among friends are similar: Jamaicans of all ages, classes gender, religious backgrounds and political affiliation - including Labourites - rejoiced at the (prospect of) the ascension to the highest office in the land of the authentically working-class woman who had struggled valiantly against enormous odds to achieve her dream."

Where has all the excitement gone? What has happened to the magic, the spellbinding appeal? Corroded with the crucible of experience? These are relevant, if painful questions, as we assess the first year of the leadership of Portia Simpson Miller of the People's national Party (PNP). For some the song being sung to Portia seems to be, 'I don't know where we went wrong but the feeling's gone and I just can't get it back'.

For one, by the Prime Minister's own account, she is no longer the darling of the press. Portia Simpson Miller's popularity over the years has been facilitated - one is certainly not saying engendered - by the press. She has traditionally enjoyed a favourable view and had a more congenial press than other politicians. She is accustomed to a largely uncritical media only too willing to give her the benefit of any doubt.

In the PNP presidential election that was most obvious to even the most casual observer. The Prime Minister's complaints about the press today are entirely understandable in light of the historically very warm relationship which she has enjoyed with the fourth estate. The about-turn would, indeed, be unwelcome.

The assessment of the first year of Portia's rise to the zenith of her party will be clouded by the emotional reaction - or overreaction - of detractors and fans. We will rarely be treated to a balanced analysis. But there must certainly be a middle ground between Dawn Ritch and Mark Wignall!

One must begin the analysis by saying that one year after her election to the presidency of the PNP, the fears about massive disunity in the party and her inability to hold things together do not hold today.

Yes, things took a little time to settle down, but considering the high stakes involved in the presidential election, the vast amounts of money spent and the hopes and aspirations invested in the contest, the fact that quarrels are not capturing the headlines still is an achievement.

Of course, we know that people very likely still have feelings and that perhaps some hurts remain. But things have been contained and are certainly not still commanding media attention.

To her credit, after the fall of Team Portia Member Colin Campbell, she recalled the veteran politician Donald Buchanan, who was Omar Davies' point man in the presidential elections, and he is her Information Minister today. Peter Phillips' point man Paul Robertson is the man charting the course for the party's fifth term. These were moves by Portia for which she has not received sufficient credit.

Disintegrate

The view that the PNP would disintegrate into open factions, and that Omar Davies, Maxine Henry-Wilson and Peter Phillips would be out of the Cabinet, has been proven to be wishful thinking on the part of PNP detractors.

Even if you say the divisions are there but they are kept under cover for the time being, some leadership credit still has to be given to the party president. The present and past leadership of the JLP would know how hard it is to keep rebellious factions quiet.

Besides, do you remember the screaming, almost hysterical articles which Don Robotham, who was to Omar Davies what Dawn Ritch is to Portia, wrote leading up to and right after the presidential election, warning Portia against her alleged dangerous populism? Remember the alarm he set off over her statement about not just balancing the books but balancing people's lives? Remember the fears about her abandoning the sound macro-economic policies of Dr. Davies and going for the rubbish heap of populism? Remember his attack on her community-centred approach to development and his suspicions that her 'flights of fancy' (my words) might lead her to economically reckless policies?

Well, one year after, Omar Davies is boasting that never in his 14 years as Finance Minister has the International Monetary Fund been so happy with his managementof the Jamaican economy. All of this has taken place under the watch of Portia Simpson Miller, who was thought to be so ignorant of economic first principles and so driven by unrealistic, utopian dreams of abolishing poverty and lifting up Payne Land, that she would not allow the sagacious Dr. Davies to manage the economy responsibly.

One year after her election there is no hint that the basically sound macroeconomic direction set by Dr. Davies is to be abandoned. It is a fact, not propaganda, that inflation is at a 30-year low; that the economy is growing at long last; that unemployment levels are at single digits for the first time in decades; that there is record infrastructural and tourism investments; that the net international reserves remain buoyant and that (counter-intuitively) poverty is declining.

Empirical data

There are always those who will argue with empirical data, preferring to use anecdotal 'evidence' over the scientific. (No wonder we have a surfeit of weird religious movements in this fundamentalist country!) Interest rates continue to decline, exports are expanding and the debt-to-GDP ratio is declining even as our primary surpluses are shattering records and leading the IMF and the World Bank to applaud.

But if things are so good, and the statistics are "going in the right direction", as defenders of the Government like to say, then why are so many of us feeling so bad? And why are the polls showing that the JLP is gaining ground, and why is Portia under so much fire?

Eighteen years a is a long time for any party to be in power, and unless the PNP can demonstrate that it has the freshness of ideas and the dynamism to lead this country into a new era of prosperity - with less crime, less corruption and more hope for our young people, young professionals as well as the poor, the macroeconomic gains will continue to be scoffed at and will not help the PNP's electoral chances.

While in our partisan and very visceral political culture it's hard to get a serious intellectual exchange going, the fact of the matter is that the seemingly puzzling phenomenon in Jamaica of good macroeconomic performance and bad ratings of the Government is not unusual in the context of developing country experience. It has to do with the contradictions of capitalist development.

There are many examples strewn all over this Latin American region, for example: Economic growth with a sense by the masses that "nutten naw gwaan". One of the lessons we should have learnt in the last twelve months is the danger of political messianism. Our religiously-influenced political culture keeps reproducing hope in political messiahs and saviours who will miraculously deliver us from all our problems and get us into the Promised Land. Our hopes and dreams have again been dashed and we have crash-landed.

It is time political leaders tell the people the truth and don't keep on creating dependencies and false hopes. Our choices and wiggle room are extremely constricted in this age of globalisation. As is being proven right now in China and India, the new darlings of the marketised path, the issues of poverty, inequality and marginalisation remain stubborn ones despite healthy economy growth and burgeoning industrialisation.

Portia Simpson Miller's emphasis on the poor and oppressed is not misplaced, and her centring development on the upliftment of people is ideologically correct. She just has to continue to make sure that sound macroeconomic policies are pursued. So far she has shown no sign of pandering to populism.

Lost ground

Portia, however, has to find a way back into the hearts of the people. She has lost some ground and disillusionment has overtaken many. Many in the uncommitted category are no longer sure about her. And Bruce Golding has been mounting a credible challenge, despite what PNP diehards say about his lack of credibility.

But Portia believes that once she hits the road the magic will return, the people will fall in love all over again and it "will be just like old time." But will it? Hasshe missed her golden opportunity? I warned the very week after her election a year ago.

"The PNP faces the real prospect of a fifth term - if Portia calls the election in a few months. She can't wait too long. Euphoria is ephemeral. There is little policy space to accommodate the gargantuan expectations which people have. (And) they won't be in any mood for rational explanations."

But, in fairness, the candidates were not in place, the divisions were still raw and there was much fence-mending to do. That had to be settled before any national elections.

Can Portia regain the magic? Can she pull off the fifth term? Oh, if politics were cricket!

Ian Boyne is a veteran journalist who may be reached at ianboyne1@yahoo.com.