John Rapley

Perhaps he was too decent for politics. Joe Clark was briefly Canada's Prime Minister in the late 1970s. His minority government fell when the Liberal opposition led a no-confidence vote over a gas tax in the government's budget. After then forming a majority Liberal Government, the ruthless but charismatic Pierre Trudeau went on to raise gas taxes many times over the Conservative proposal. Go figure.

In the island recently for a conference on governance, Mr. Clark spoke to me about the naivety that caused his government's fall, and the sad direction in which he feels Canada's politics has been going. The Progressive Conservative party he once led embodied the 'red Tory' ideals of conservatism with a social conscience. Compassionate conservatism in the true sense of the word, it was a far cry from the mean-spirited marketing ploy of today's United States Republicans.

Absorbed

The Progressive Conservatives are no more. They were absorbed into the new Conservative Party, an amalgamation of Canada's various right-wing movements. Mr. Clark spoke out against the merger when it happened three years ago. However, ever more removed from politics, there was little he could do to stop it.

What worries him is that Canada's Conservative Party, which now controls the federal government, is in fact borrowing from the play book of U.S. Republicans. He detects close ties between leading members of the Conservative caucus and government on one hand, and right-wing American think tanks on the other. He even sees some influence reaching right into the White House itself.

Certainly, the ideological content of Canadian conservatism has come to resemble that of the U.S. Republicans to a degree never before seen in federal politics.

Only on the Canadian prairies - and especially in the oil-rich province of Alberta - is small-state conservatism a strong sell.

It is from Alberta that this Conservative government springs. The question is whether its message can find appeal elsewhere in the country. A minority government, it needs to pick up more support in Ontario and Quebec.

Speculation

As for Quebec, it will go to the polls shortly in provincial elections. Paradoxically, some observers speculate that a Liberal triumph there will actually serve the federal Conservatives well, since the provincial and federal premiers happen to be close.

Nevertheless, many see Conservative strength as cyclical, a function of federal Liberal weakness. Ripped open by a nasty leadership battle, then torn to shreds by a corruption scandal, the Liberals are struggling to regroup. But, if history is any guide, they will. And when they do, yet another prairie protest movement will retreat into history.

That has been a staple in Canadian history: every generation or so, discontent at Liberal Government prompts a prairie conservative upsurge, leading to interregnums of a term or so. Then the Liberals come back.

For those like Mr. Clark, who dislike Canada's new politics, that would be the optimistic scenario. But he can't be sure it will happen. Regarding the country he loves, he fears it is becoming less, well, Canadian. Unifying symbols are disappearing, he laments. And in a country with weak national glue to begin with, that would be a worrying sign.

Deep down, Joe Clark seems to believe that this Government just can't last; that when push comes to shove, Canadians won't buy into it. He is a lonely figure now. But if history vindicates him, perhaps he will then get the due he deserves.