Edward Seaga I have followed the happenings in Zimbabwe over the years with the greatest interest. It is an excellent case study worthy of a scholarly work. Two neighbouring countries with much the same topography, climate, colonial background and racial mix, economic diversity and social problems launched freedom movements which involved armed conflict against their colonial masters, and after a bloody struggle which left bitter feelings finally became independent nations.
Apart from the nationalist drive for independence inherent in all colonised, people, Kenya and Zimbabwe had an overriding problem: its farm lands were largely under the control of white settlers producing mostly tobacco, coffee and rearing cattle. The white farmers were efficient and effective producers. Agriculture was the backbone of the economy.
Kenya found a way to deal with the dominance of whites over the land while still maintaining production. The United Kingdom government made available ?500 million which was used for land acquisition and land settlement. Those who left were compensated. Wealthy Kenyans bought their land and kept farming going. Others stayed without molestation.
An attempt was made to put a similar scheme together for Zimbabwe using, Anglo-American funds, but it did not materialise. Zimbabwe went a different route. Five thousand white commercial farmers owned 40 per cent of the land and produced 75 per cent of the agricultural output, employing 300,000 families. President Robert Mugabe sent gangs of unemployed to seize the land. Some deaths occurred among white farmers. The majority of those who were not killed packed up and left. The African gangs took over the land. It was a victory for the people organised by Mugabe. They were now in possession of their own land. But there was a problem. Like a dog chasing a car, when it caught it, it did not know what to do with it.
Who is to blame?
Three hundred thousand worker families have been displaced; Zimbabwe has little or no food production and foreign exchange. According to the Economist magazine, Zimbabwe's shoppers encounter "rows upon rows of rolls upon rolls of toilet paper where bread, sugar and oil used to be." Who is to blame? According to Mugabe, "Runaway market forces are leading a vicious all-out assault on the poor." Mr. Mugabe argues that price rises for scarce food are caused by greedy businessmen. To control this, prices are regulated on everything from typewriters to baby food which, of course, means that the regulated items leave the shelf and enter the black market. Those who deal on the black market to get life supporting foreign exchange necessary for survival are "enemies of the state".
When the people rise up they are dispersed with water cannons. The stronghold shanty towns of the Opposition are torn down. Their candidates are harassed by police and their leader threatened and imprisoned. Police make it difficult for voters to exercise their right. Elections are held but they are so corrupt that they don't matter. The results are foregone conclusions.
Now it seems that people don't care anymore if they are harassed or shot. They are getting brave enough to fight back. The forces of state terrorism are also having second thoughts because they and their families, too, are part of the horde of sufferers. There is a long list of deserters.
Professionals, nurses and doctors have been on strike for the past two months with other categories threatening to join them.
Obviously, there is a crisis which has only one solution- change. But this advice will not come from African states or the Organisation of African Unity. So the crisis will move to an inevitable end, which is, as history tells us, the king must go. The problem is that the king, Mugabe, is seeking through the Parliament he controls to extend his term of office to 2010, this time without having to go through the rigged election which occurred the last time, drawing an international furore.
Reasons
All this is of great importance to Jamaica for several reasons:
Lest we forget, 14,000 small shops throughout the country were closed in the late 1970s, or had one window open. Their shelves carried Foska oats, toilet paper and aerated waters because there was no foreign exchange to import goods or raw materials to provide other items.
Lest we forget, the sugar estates were turned over to the workers to operate. Everybody became a 'busha'. Production collapsed. Losses mounted astronomically. Eventually, the same 'white men' who ran the estates before were asked to return.
Lest we forget, factories and businesses folded, displacing thousands of families of workers. Those who could afford it fled the country. These included employers and employees. The equivalent of 50 per cent of all the persons trained in any skill in non-tertiary institutions between 1977-80 fled the country.
Lest we forget, when the Opposition was getting too strong in 1976, posing an electoral threat to the Government, a State of Emergency was called in that election year to detain Opposition candidates and fron-tline workers. Notwithstanding the disbanding of the Opposition, Government took no chances. They held the election in the heart of the State of Emergency, December 1976. Every form of electoral fraud was perpetrated against the Opposition, adding to the equally effective forces of state terrorism. This continued until I threatened that the Opposition would participate in no more elections unless the system of political control over the elections was changed. That is how the Electoral Advisory Committee was born, to remove elections from the control of the minister.
The West Kingston way
In my own case, a new Presiding Officer was appointed by the Chief Elector Officer to ensure that election day in West Kingston would be frustrated. He was seen driving around with my opponent while hundreds of electoral workers were waiting on the night before the election for electoral supplies: ballot boxes etc. The workers did not scatter. They waited until he arrived, almost too late, to advise them that the ballots and other papers were locked in the trunk of his car and he had lost the key. They would have to wait on him to deliver the ballots and boxes on election day.
This was the plan, to deliver ballot papers and ballot boxes late in the afternoon to JLP areas, too late to process the thousands of voters. The election-smart West Kingston workers spotted the trick and reacted as West Kingston people do. They caught him and locked him in a room then called the Chief Electoral Officer (who ran for the PNP in the next general election), to come and get him. They broke open the back of his car, removed the electoral materials, distributed the papers and waited on the Chief Electoral Officer to come and check them off.
Too many other similarities
There were too many other similarities between Zimbabwe and Jamaica to mention here. Suffice it to say that Jamaica was saved by the people themselves who, following strong leadership, demonstrated that they had taken control of the country by locking it down twice in three weeks in February 1980. The Government was no longer in control. Only the announcement of an election date could save further mayhem and loss of authority. That is how the election day of October 30, 1980, came to be set from as early as February of that year.
Another important point is to be made. Robert Mugabe was a good socialist, and no doubt in the first phase of all socialist governments, the populist phase, he must have been very popular. But as the 'goodies' grow scarce from corruption and the widescale distribution of what others produce, dissent sets in. This requires the use of state forces to deal with dissent. Foreign exchange and capital flight occur, making it impossible to import food, medicine, raw materials and capital goods. Things grind to a halt. Mugabe must be wondering how his well-intentioned socialist principles could have taken him in this direction. There is no mystery. The formula is the same everywhere, including Jamaica. Starting with populism, the collapse of supplies of goods and services come next, then the breakdown of law and order follow. At that point, governments have the choice to leave or become outright dictators.
We can only wonder which route Zimbabwe will take. We came close to having to make that choice too, in Jamaica, but the strength of the people and the leadership foreclosed that option. Speaking from a position of great strength, they wanted elections, nothing less and they got it. Lest we forget.
Edward Seaga is a former Prime Minister. He is now a Distinguished Fellow at the UWI. Email: odf@uwimona.edu.jm.
