John Rapley

In Riyadh this week, the Arab Summit reaffirmed its commitment to the Saudi peace plan proposed in the wake of 9/11. This plan calls for Arab recognition of Israel in return for the creation of a Palestinian state on the lands occupied by Israel in the 1967 war.

The proposal is not likely to have much of an impact on the Israeli government. Israeli policy does not currently contemplate the possibility of returning all the West Bank. But then, it may not be that the Saudis are really trying to impress Israeli opinion, atleast not yet.

School of thought

There is a school of thought which suggests that what is really going on in the Saudi capital is an effort to shift the balance of power in the Middle East away from Iran. Tehran's president, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, seemed to be on the ascendant in recent months. The American quagmire in Iraq strengthened Iranian hardliners, as did the strong showing put in by their Lebanese allies, Hezbollah, in their fighting against Israel last year.

But Iran's rise threatens many of the region's governments. Outwardly, they can't condemn Iranian actions, especially in light of the popularity throughout the region of Hezbollah. But they worry about the rise of militant Shi'ism, not to mention the instability in Iraq. Iran seems to benefit from the latter, and the Americans certainly accuse Tehran of fomenting it. Above all, a cauldron that creates space for a radical Sunni politics (like that of al Qaeda) is an immediate threat to Saudi Arabia.

So, by its aggressive diplomacy, Saudi Arabia seems to be hoping it can boost its influence in the region while lessening that of Tehran. Tehran would appear to have little interest in talks between the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas on one hand and Israel on the other. Such an eventuality seems exceedingly remote at the moment. But behind closed doors, things may be happening.

To begin with, Riyadh brokered the formation of a Palestinian government that reconciled Hamas and the Fatah Party of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Now, in promoting its peace deal, it appears to be hoping it can restart a diplomatic process. Israel refuses to deal with Hamas. Nevertheless, the Israeli promise made to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice during her recent mideast tour, to maintain communication with President Abbas, keeps open a window that could later be used to permit indirect Israeli-Hamas talks. There are already reports of Saudi-Israeli talks.

Don't expect anything dramatic to happen in the peace process. But the pressure on Iran may be well-timed. Internationally, Tehran is a bit isolated at the moment, given both the incident involving captured British sailors and its standoff with the international community over its nuclear programme.

Liberal opposition growing

Domestically, too, the hardliners in the Iranian government are, despite their bluster, on the defensive. The liberal opposition is growing in strength. Moreover, there are even reports that the religious establishment is not entirely happy with President Ahmedinejad.

The Saudis probably have an eye on all this. Iran may still look like it has many cards to play. But Riyadh may have calculated that this is a moment of weakness which can be exploited to its advantage.

Of course, standing in the background is Saudi Arabia's all-important ally, the United States. Despite American ambivalence towards the oil kingdom, which is seen to have produced too many terrorists, Washington would like to see Saudi influence grow at the expense of Iran. But for this to happen, sooner or later it will need to pressure the Israelis to accept Arab overtures.

Given Washington's steadfast commitment to Israel, this still looks doubtful.