Beverley Anderson-Manley

BOTH POLITICAL parties have been in a type of political limbo since the beginning of the year, as the country prepared for the Cricket World Cup. As this phase comes to an end, it is time to get on with the other show - the election show.

Last week, we heard Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader Bruce Golding crank up the election political machine. He, once again, emphasised to his candidates that the Jamaica Labour Party, under his leadership, was going to win the elections based on organisation - constituency by constituency. It is interesting that even as the JLP leader is stressing the importance of organisation, the People's National Party (PNP) - created as the party of organisation - is lagging behind in this area, as remnants of the divisions caused by the intense leadership campaign remain, as well as the controversial process for selection of candidates.

It is widely accepted that Bruce Golding is not a charismatic leader. If the JLP is to win the next elections, after so many years in the political wilderness, they cannot depend on the personality of their leader. What the PNP is failing to recognise is that having a charismatic leader is not enough. They could be in danger of winning the popular vote and yet lose the elections in terms of seats.

End of a Career

A statistical dead heat has existed between the political parties since December. Something extraordinary would have to happen to shift this situation fundamentally. This is entirely possible. The situation is dynamic and there is so much at stake. Whichever leader loses, that is likely to be the end of their days in the politics and this could happen swiftly and decisively. Neither Portia nor Bruce has the kind of support within their party machineries that they would like to have.

In the case of the JLP, they are remaining 'united' in order to win. Many JLP leaders and members still do not forgive or trust Bruce. In the case of the PNP, many of its leaders are still uncomfortable with the non-traditional leadership of Portia but recognise that what the former party leader said at the last annual conference is entirely correct - only Portia can win the fifth term. The political landscape, for the PNP, would be entirely different if Portia was not the leader. So, like it or not, they have to face the fact that without Portia there is no fifth term. In the case of Bruce, he is the person most likely to win the elections for the JLP.

Portia has lost a great deal of support since she won the PNP presidency last February. In disaggregating poll figures of those who no longer support her, there is a significant group of women who are remaining with her no matter what. She needs to consolidate her support among this group.

In the case of Golding - some of the men who no longer support Portia have switched their allegiance to Bruce. He needs to consolidate his support among this group.

Issues

Whichever card plays - it is going to be the type of elections where both parties will compete in the game hard and fast. It is the only game in town. Regrettably, in this scenario, issues hardly make a difference.

Portia represents the so-called 'soft' welfare type issues. Bruce represents the so-called 'tough' governance issues. The polls support this. The difference is that inside Portia's Cabinet are two Bruce-type leaders - Peter Phillips and Omar Davies - whom the delegates see as being able to handle the 'tough issues', leaving Portia free to concentrate on 'balancing people's lives'.