Garwin Davis, Gleaner Writer

After 18 years of what many St. Elizabeth South West residents have called 'broken promises and unfilled expectations', Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, it would appear, will have to conjure up all the magic at her disposal to keep the constituency from switching to the Opposition.

With a Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, conducted on March 10, 2007, questioning the prospects of a People's National Party (PNP) victory, supporters are now looking to the Prime Minister to secure St. Elizabeth South West - a constituency the JLP, not counting the 1983 snap election which the PNP boycotted, has not won since 1980.

Portia surge expected

"If anybody can do it, Portia can," commented Cornelius Brown, a fisherman from Calabash Bay in Treasure Beach. "All the noise you are hearing about Chris Tufton (the Jamaica Labour Party candidate), the day Portia comes through this constituency is the day everything changes for the better. All Stanley Redwood (PNP candidate) has to do is remain calm; Portia will take him home."

Ruth Thomas, a fish vendor in Treasure Beach, added: "The Labourites them know that when Sister P (the name the Prime Minister is affectionately called by her supporters) hits the road, there is no turning back. Always remember that this is PNP country."

But can Portia stop the 'Tufton Express'?

The numbers are not very encouraging. What stands out, though, especially from a JLP standpoint, is that while 48 per cent say they have a favourable opinion of her, an unusually strong 36 per cent say they have seen nothing for them to like - hardly the wave of momentum the most popular politician in the country expected.

Opposition Leader Bruce Golding, truth be told, even in some constituencies fiercely loyal to the JLP, does not always fare well when it comes to voters expressing their personal opinion of him.

It is, therefore, surprising that Golding and the JLP, notwith-standing the plus or minus five per cent margin of error, bettered Simpson Miller and the PNP in every polling department.

On the question of which party do you think would do the best job of governing Jamaica at this time, 43 per cent said the JLP compared to the 34 per cent that said the PNP.

On the question of whether they have a favourable opinion of the PNP, 47 per cent said no, while 39 per cent said yes. When the same question was asked about the JLP, 43 per cent said yes and 40 per cent said no.

And it doesn't get much better for Simpson Miller and the PNP. Asked how they would rate the performance of the Government at this time, 46 per cent said they were not impressed while 33 per cent gave the administration the thumbs up.

And while voter apathy (38 per cent said they did not vote in the last election) might still be considered high, St. Elizabeth South West, with a voters' list of over 20,000, is one of the better constituencies in terms of persons exercising their franchise during parliamentary elections - 60 per cent of respondents said they voted in the general election of 2002. Of the 38 per cent who said they did not vote, most are enumerated and could play a critical role in deciding which party wins the seat.

Portia factor

The Portia factor, though, is still debatable, especially when a combined 64 per cent say they support the PNP based on family tradition (38 per cent) and their personal beliefs. Only nine per cent say Simpson Miller's being the leader and Prime Minister has influenced their thinking.

From the JLP's standpoint, a combined 54 per cent either said it was time for a change and that the party was solid, or would do a better job than the PNP. Only 18 per cent said they supported the JLP based on family tradition.