Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller is the most popular politician among residents in the St. Andrew East community of Mona Commons. This photo was taken during a recent visit by a Gleaner news team to the area. - Ricardo Makyn/Staff Photographer

IF THE People's National Party (PNP) is able to transfer the perceived Portia factor into votes, it may regain the St. Andrew East seat that Colin Campbell lost to the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) St. Aubyn Bartlett in the 2002 General Election.

With general elections constitutionally due by October, a Gleaner-commissioned survey conducted by pollster Bill Johnson on March 10 and 11 has found both the PNP and JLP locked at 29 per cent as the party which registered electors in St. Andrew East would vote for if elections were held today. In addition, neither Bartlett, the incumbent Member of Parliament (MP), nor his rival, Professor Trevor Munroe, has a clear path to success.

Bartlett has lost favour with some constituents, with just 17 per centbelieving he should be returned to office. The PNP's candidate, Munroe, leads Bartlett by six percentage points as it relates to whom the people want most to win the seat - 29 per cent of persons surveyed want Munroe, while 23 per cent would give Bartlett the nod. Nearly half (48 per cent) of the respondents are undecided about which candidate to support.

Based on poll indicators, the PNP may have to depend on the Portia factor - the novelty and populism associated with the country's first woman Prime Minister - to win over many uncommitted voters in order to capture the St. Andrew East seat.

Johnson's poll was conducted among 480 registered voters and the findings have an error margin of plus or minus five per cent. Simpson Miller, according to these polls, enjoys significant popularity among the electorate in the St. Andrew East constituency, compared to JLP leader Bruce Golding. According to the poll, Simpson Miller has a favourability rating of 54 per cent for the prime ministership, 17 per cent more than Opposition Leader Bruce Golding, who has a backing of 37 per cent of the constituency.

Interestingly, 34 per cent are not in favour of Simpson Miller's being returned as Prime Minister and 32 per cent are against seeing Golding take up that office. And though more constituents believe Simpson Miller would do a better job as Prime Minister, with the mass of undecided - 33 per cent - it could still be anybody's game.

Johnson's poll also found that the Prime Minister is more popular than her party among the electorate, with just 38 per cent favouring the PNP, 16 per cent less than those who favour its leader. However, with a greater plurality of the electorate (43 per cent) not in favour of the PNP, the Government may have reason to worry, especially with the JLP just five points shy, at 33 per cent.

St. Andrew East has two political divisions, Papine and Mona. In both divisions, The Gleaner spoke with persons, 12 of whom were seen wearing Simpson Miller T-shirts; but many, particularly in theMona division, pledged to stay home on election day.

One woman who described herself as a PNP "die-hard" says she is wearing the shirt because "mi love Sista P, but the PNP nuh duh nuttin fi wi, suh mi nah vote."

daraine.luton@gleanerjm.com