Garwin Davis, Sunday Gleaner Writer

Porteous

Prior to his surprise resignation on Friday evening, People's National Party (PNP) candidate for Central Manchester, Vando Palmer, was trailing his Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) rival Sally Porteous as the lesser attractive candidate, accor-ding to a Gleaner-commissioned poll conducted a week ago.

However, both candidates were dead even when electors were asked which party they would vote for in an election.

In a survey of 480 constituents on April 29, pollster Bill Johnson found that both candidates would have the identical support of 33 per cent of registered voters if an election were held today.

Scored big

Porteous, however, was well ahead on the question of who the voters would most want to see as their representative in Parliament, scoring 42 per cent to Palmer's 30 per cent - well outside the poll's error margin of plus or minus five percentage points.

Porteous - Mandeville's deputy mayor - also scored big in termsof likeability, with 48 per cent of persons interviewed saying they have a favourable opinion of her as opposed to the 27 per cent who say they do not.

In contrast, only 27 per cent of respondents had a favourable opinion of Palmer - a communication specialist - as opposed to the 32 per cent who say they don't.

A whopping 41 per cent admitted to not having an opinion either way of the PNP candidate. Only 25 per cent said the same thing about Porteous.

Porteous also scored big on visibility, with 49 per cent of the respondents admitting to have seen or met her in their communities over the past six months. Only 26 per cent said the same thing about Palmer.

Strategies vital

However, with very few respondents (10 per cent) saying they are undecided and most seemingly locked in for their candidate, the poll indicates that the strategies employed by both the PNP and the JLP from here on in will be vital and that changes in the national political climate could tilt the outcome.

"This has the making of a rather fascinating contest," Johnson said in a telephone interview from Trinidad on Thursday. "Unlike some of the other constituencies we have done, the respondents have a favourable opinion of the incumbent Member of Parliament and also of the government. It is, therefore, rather surprising that the PNP is not ahead in this race."

Junor's stewardship

The sitting MP for Central Manchester is John Junor, who is not seeking re-election. It is worth noting, however, that 46 per cent of the respondents say they have a favourable view of Junor as opposed to the 34 per cent who say they don't; 20 per cent said that even after 18 years as MP for the constituency, they still haven't made up their minds as to what to make of Mr. Junor's stewardship.

"It is clear that John Junor has done a good job and will have to do some work for Palmer," Johnson added. "The combination of Junor and Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller could possibly make a difference here. They will have to be on the ground in Central Manchester to assist Palmer. What the poll is indicating is that if they vote local, then the JLP may well take this home while if they vote national, then the PNP might well retain the seat. There are all sorts of cross-currents at work here. This is terrific stuff."

Main issues

The respondents listed crime and violence, jobs, road conditions, and water woes as their most pressing local needs; 49 per cent said the constituency was heading in the right direction as opposed to the 41 per cent who said it was heading in the wrong direction.

There are four constituency divisions in Central Manchester: Royal Flat, Bellefield, Knock-patrick and Mandeville.

All, with the exception of Bellefield, are represented by JLP councilors.