( L - R )Henry-Wilson(left) and Gordon-Webley

POLLSTER BILL Johnson believes Maxine Henry-Wilson's best chance to retain her St. Andrew South East seat in the upcoming general election is to mend fences with Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller.

"They should become like Siamese twins, go into the constituency and show people that they are like sisters," Johnson said in an interview with The Sunday Gleaner. "If they don't, it's going to be difficult for the PNP (People's National Party) to win."

Johnson's survey of St. Andrew South East was conducted April 21-22 with approximately 480 residents interviewed. While most of the constituents gave the Prime Minister high marks, their Member of Parliament flunked the test.

The two women were on opposite sides during the PNP's presidential election, a campaign sometimes punctuated by mud-slinging and bitterness.

Johnson said that 50 per cent of the people approve of Simpson Miller's performance as Prime Minister compared to 34 per cent who disapprove.

She held a six-point lead (42 per cent to 36 per cent) over Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader Bruce Golding in terms of "who would do a better job as Prime Minister".

Interestingly, a massive 73 per cent said the country was going in the wrong direction.

"That's the strange thing, they still like her (Simpson Miller) but they don't associate her with the Government," Johnson said.

Henry-Wilson, however, does not enjoy similar popularity.

Responding to the question, 'Do you think Maxine Henry-Wilson deserves to be re-elected as your Member of Parliament when the next general election is held, or do you think someone else should be elected?', 27 per cent believe she deserves another five-year term. Fifty-five per cent said someone else should be given a chance.

It got a lot tighter when they were asked, 'If the election were held today, whom would you most want to win?' Thirty-one per cent of the respondents said Joan Gordon-Webley, the JLP candidate. Thirty per cent said Henry-Wilson, while 36 per cent were undecided.

Twenty-seven per cent of those interviewed cited Henry-Wilson's strong performance as their reason for her to be re-elected. Thirty per cent of her detractors said she had done nothing for the community.

Johnson said the fiery Gordon-Webley, a former parliamentarian, has been a more effective campaigner.

"She is outfoxing the MP," he said.

Henry-Wilson won the St. Andrew South East constituency in the 2002 General Election. She easily defeated the JLP's Philip Henriques by getting 53 per cent of the vote. Johnson said her popularity has steadily declined, especially among young persons.

"The under-35 support for the JLP is significant," he noted. "The young people are voting their dreams and aspirations, the older ones are voting on memories."

St Andrew South East voting patterns

Constituency Level

1997: Actual Vote

PNP 5,697 (59%)

JLP 3,236 (34%)

Other 683 (7%)

2002: Actual Vote

PNP 4,959 (54%)

JLP 4,100 (45%)

Other 127 (1%)

2007: Survey

PNP 30%

JLP 35%

Undecided 16%

Refused 3%

Would Not Vote 16%

Divisional Level

2002: Actual Vote

Total Trafalgar Vineyard

PNP 54% 53% 55%

JLP 45% 45% 44%

Other 1% 2% 1%

2007: Survey

PNP 30% 22% 36%

JLP 35% 38% 33%

Undecided 16% 20% 14%

Refused 3% 5% 2%

WNV 11% 17% 15%