Adrian Frater, News Editor

Western Bureau:

It should be a battle royal for the St. James West Central seat in the upcoming general election. According to the findings of a Gleaner-commissioned poll conducted by pollster Bill Johnson, the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) Clive Mullings and the People's National Party's (PNP) Francis Tulloch are locked in a statistical dead-heat at 28 per cent and 29 per cent, respectively, in voter support.

The poll, conducted on April 29 among 480 residents in the constituency, has an error margin of plus or minus five per cent, meaning that the ratings the candidates or parties received during the survey could increase or decrease by as much as five points in an actual election outcome.

Split down the middle

Based on Johnson's recent poll findings, the constituents in St. James West Central are split down the middle in their support for former MP Tulloch against incumbent MP Mullings, who trounced former Montego Bay mayor Hugh Solomon by a 7,047 to 5,888 votes to win the seat in 2002.

However, among the respon-dents who are all registered voters, Mullings has a slight advantage over Tulloch because 29 per cent said they would definitely vote for the JLP compared to 26 per cent for the PNP. It should be noted though that while 18 of the respondents were undecided as to which party they would vote for, 25 per cent said they would definitely not vote.

"I am sensing that this is going to be a very close race," pollster Johnson comments. "While the JLP appears to be doing quite well in St. James generally, one senses there is a desire among some voters to give Tulloch one last chance for what he did in the past."

While the electoral standing between the candidates appears razor thin, Tulloch should be a little more comfortable because 42 per cent of respondents saidthey had a favourable opinion of the PNP, against 37 per cent for the JLP. In addition, 38 per cent said they believed the PNP would do a better job of running the country compared to 34 per cent for the JLP.

Differing views

With reference to the perception that Tulloch seems to be enjoying greater traction among the older voters, while Mullings appears to be holding his own among the younger voters, Johnson said it is quite understandable because of the two groups' differing points of view.

"The older voters could vote off the memory of what Tulloch did in the past, while the younger voters could vote for what they are hoping for the future," reasoned Johnson. "It will be interesting to see how these two different points of view develop as the election draws closer."