Left: Gordon Brown - A mere two per cent of blacks named Brown as the leader they held in esteem, against 31 per cent who said Blair. Right: Britain's outgoing Prime Minister Tony Blair. - Reuters photos

LONDON, England:

Gordon Brown can hardly expect a rapturous welcome from black Britons when he takes over as leader of the Labour Party later this month. Blacks, nonetheless, will still vote overwhelmingly for Labour at the next election even though not being warm to the chancellor, two thirds of them saying that the party takes them for granted.

Black antipathy to Brown and their sense of being seen merely as votes in the bag by Labour are captured in the first major survey of black opinion in nearly two decades, conducted in mid-March for The Voice. The poll, with a representative sample of 600, was done by American pollster Bill Johnson. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. Johnson has over 30 years' polling experience, including the last 11 working in the Caribbean.

When asked about perception of Labour's incoming leader, 24 per cent said they were favourable to the Prime Minister-in-waiting, while 40 per cent said they had an unfavourable opinion of him.

Thirty six per cent were unsure of their impression of Brown. By contrast, 50 per cent of blacks, double the amount for Brown, had a favourable opinion of outgoing Prime Minister Tony Blair, whose popularity in the wider community has fallen dramatically because of public disaffection with the war in Iraq and his staunch support for United States President Bush's policies in the Middle East. Twenty seven per cent of black Britons had an unfavourable opinion of Blair.

Issue of respect

But as unpopular as Brown is among black voters, long seen as a bastion of Labour support, it is on the issue of respect that the Chancellor's seeming alienation from the black community is more gravely apparent.

Johnson asked people which leaders in the United Kingdom they looked up to and respected the most. While less than half (40 per cent) of black people responded to the question, a mere two per cent of them named Brown as the leader they held in esteem, against 31 per cent who said Blair.

Brown was equal with the Queen as the leader who blacks respect, and was one percentage point higher than former Tory Prime Minister Lady Thatcher and the black Labour Member of Parliament, Diane Abbott, each of whom polled one per cent.

But, despite the clear unease among Britain's blacks with Labour's new leader and the party itself, it seems unlikely that this will benefit either the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats. Any effect would be felt in marginal constituencies with substantial black populations.

Indeed, just over half (51 per cent) of blacks said they had an unfavourable view of Conservative leader David Cameron, 11 percentage points worse than the 40 per cent who have an unfavourable view of Menzies Campbell, the Lib-Dem leader. On the other hand, Cameron's favourability rating among blacks was 10 per cent, against eight per cent for Campbell.

No love for parties

But unlike Labour, it is not just the leaders of these parties that black Britons seem to dislike - but the parties themselves.

On the other hand, 57 per cent of black people said they were favourable to Labour, against 27 per cent who were unfavourable.

In the case of the other parties, 64 per cent said they were unfavourable to the Tories, while 49 per cent had a similar view of the Lib-Dems. The positive rating for these two parties were five and eight per cent, respectively.

These largely positive views that black Britons have of Labour have paid dividends in the past and will continue to help in the ballot box, notwithstanding the fact that 67 per cent agreed that the party takes its black support for granted.

Eighty two per cent of blacks said they were registered to vote and 51 per cent said they voted in the elections two years ago, of which 86 per cent cast ballots for Labour. Only two per cent voted Conservative, against four per cent who cast ballots for the Lib-Dems.

When asked how they would vote in the next election, 51 per cent of blacks said they were committed to Labour, while 23 per cent were undecided and 17 per cent said they won't vote. Only three per cent each would vote for the Conservatives or the Liberal-Democrats.

The Voice is a niche newspaper owned by the Gleaner Company which explores issues affecting blacks in Britain.