Dawn Ritch, Columnist

Many people call an election period 'the silly season'. That's the last thing it should be termed.

The general reason is that, during the run-up to a presidential or general election, politicians can be counted on to do things which look very silly indeed. At another level, the candidates get stressed out and start to lash out at those around them. But I have never seen anybody leave a political campaign because he or she didn't like how anyone, above all the candidate, spoke to that individual.

Ironically, this makes the political sphere very much like a boarding school. It offers regimentation and long hours in the service of an object greater than oneself. Being ready to carry out orders immediately, and without hesitation, is its sine qua non.

Many party supporters hang their bodies out of moving vehicles. Those who do so demonstrate without a shadow of a doubt that they did not continue their education. Indeed, their chances of not seeing another day are vastly increased.

This is one of the reasons I admire 'Babsy' Grange, Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Member of Parliament for Central St. Catherine. She comes from the ghetto, but is not of the ghetto. Desmond McKenzie, mayor of Kingston, comes from the same place, but they are as cheese is to chalk. None in his or her right mind would consider him as a candidate for Governor-General. But it takes no great stretch of the imagination to think of Ms. Grange in that way. She not only dresses well and has good manners, but she is actually interested in what other people have to say.

Leader of the JLP Party

I could even see her as leader of the Jamaica Labour Party. The qualification for that is not only steadfast loyalty to the institution, but a capacity for long hours, quick decision making and flexibility. Above all, it requires that no one else be blamed for anything under the sun, and a ready recognition that the buck stops here. We know that she is so because in all her long years of service to that party, nobody has ever heard her whine. This is an indispensable virtue in political leadership.

Should Bruce Golding lose the next general election and ride off into the sunset, the JLP is unlikely to submit itself to a four-way leadership contest. In 2005, it was not prepared to subject itself to any kind of contest at all, because Pearnel Charles, the sole opponent to Golding, withdrew. Having raised money for him to enter the contest, and supported him in it, this was a personal disappointment for me. People who know him well warned me about this very possibility.

In 2006, I supported the candidacy of Mrs. Simpson Miller and was overjoyed to see her win. That was the first time I'd been right about any political outcome since the general election of 1980.

Until last year, every election I bet on, and I've bet on every single one of them, I lost. During this time, I'm pleased to say I've only ever bet $100, despite multiple blandishments to bet in the thousands of dollars, or cases of champagne, or U.S. dollars.

In Mrs. Simpson Miller's case last February, I weakened. I agreed to two bottles of non-vintage champagne as the wager. The morning after the election, I received two bottles of champagne. The hand that addressed it was very shaky.

I could not begin to name the people who have pleaded with me before February 25, 2006, and since, to write nothing nice about her. Those who want her to win, think I'm a jinx, and say last February was just tempting fate.

Interestingly enough, those who don't want Mrs. Simpson Miller to win, are not interested in taking any bets. Not a soul will take my bet. Instead, I have a number of bets that she will change her Cabinet. One punter withdrew from this wager when she saw Peter Bunting become a candidate for a PNP seat.

It is noteworthy that in a news feature on CVM's Election Watch last week, it was reported that Mrs. Simpson Miller's PNP has a 60:40 ratio of old candidates to new. Bruce Golding's JLP, on the other hand, has a ratio of 73:27 of old candidates to new. The PNP has 24 newcomers to the JLP's 16, according to the report.

In spite of the PNP being in office for 18 years, therefore, Mrs. Simpson Miller still has more new faces to choose from, than does Mr. Golding. This has to be an advantage when one is seriously thinking of change, and it's an advantage to the PNP.

Politics is overwhelmingly about leadership, and the decisions made by leaders. Mrs. Simpson Miller believes that she has the right to renew her party. Golding does not.

A little ironic

This is more than a little ironic, because there was the time when things were different. Golding paraded himself as 'new and different' when he formed the National Democratic Party, a rival party to the JLP, and split the latter's vote.

In Mandeville recently, at an all-island JLP rally, Golding said that the JLP had signed on to all the things he wanted when he was leader of the NDM. Yet, the only person always standing prominently behind or beside him on a JLP platform is Desmond McKenzie, mayor of Kingston and councillor for the Tivoli division in Golding's West Kingston's seat. Ah yes, and Chris Tufton.

Although Golding has vastly more seasoned candidates to new ones, the JLP stalwarts like Mike Henry, Babsy Grange, Pearnel Charles and Ed Bartlett are nowhere to be seen. Poor Audley Shaw is put at the podium early to rouse the crowd from their slumber.

Politics is the only thing on the planet about which everybody considers themselves experts. But, promoting Babsy Grange has more to be gained from it politically, than promoting either Desmond McKenzie or Shahine Robinson. At least, the political base recognises Ms. Grange as capable, compassionate, and a symbol of continuity in the JLP from the Edward Seaga era.

It seems to me that Golding is determined to stamp out the Seaga era, and undervalue every currency he has in the JLP. He turns it all to dross, as he did with the NDM. Sir Alexander Bustamante must be turning in his grave, especially since he placed no trust in Golding's father.

Nothing that Golding does looks 'silly'. It is just plain stupid. He needs someone to help him, but no one seems willing to do so. Instead, they all line up to see who can succeed him after the next election. My bet is Ms. Grange, James Robertson, or Andrew Holness, all of them Seaga protégés.