LEFT: Johnson
RIGHT: Junior Dowie/Staff Photographer
People's National Party (PNP) campaign director, Dr. Paul Robertson (left), addressing a recent press conference at party headquarters in St. Andrew to deny reports about unfavourable poll findings for the PNP. At right is PNP general secretary Donald Buchanan.

Daraine Luton and Gareth Manning, Sunday Gleaner Reporters

If the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) continues to rule the airwaves with advertisements, the governing People's National Party (PNP) could find itself in problems should Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller announce the date for the general election today, when she gives the main address ata public meeting in Half-Way-Tree, St. Andrew.

Party officials are reluctant to say whether Simpson Miller will announce the date of election at this gathering. However, there is news that there are elements in the party who believe the PNP may be taking a beating from pro-JLP advertisements in the electronic media, and that Simpson Miller should delay announcing the election date.

Pollster Bill Johnson tells The Sunday Gleaner that based on polls he has conducted for this newspaper, the PNP has had some momentum going for it since May. The last polls, done in June, show the PNP with a seven percentage-point lead over the JLP, and it seems that, based on the PNP's internal polls, the party is confident it will win a fifth term in office.

Well liked

"Never in the history of this country has any party with a seven percentage-point lead lost an election," states Dr. Paul Robertson, PNP campaign director.

Meanwhile, Johnson, who also does polls for the PNP, notes that the Prime Minister remains well liked and popular among most Jamaicans, especially after her Budget presentation. He was, however, uncertain of the effects the JLP has been having on potential voters.

"The troubling thing for the PNP is that the JLP has been on TV for the last couple of weeks, and at this stage, we don't know what effects those ads are having," Johnson says.

He notes that one rule in campaigning is never to let the opponent have a monopoly of the airwaves. He says it is possible advertisements could be helping to create momentum for the JLP. "Whoever has the momentum going into the last three or four weeks of the election, will be hard to beat," he says.

Political analyst Kevin O'Brien Chang says the lack of PNP ads could be an indication that their campaign machinery is not as well oiled as it used to be. "There is some talk on the road that the PNP is going make the JLP spend off their money and then they are going to start advertising; but that is just lose talk. But people have been pointing and asking why they haven't been running ads, and nobody really knows," Chang says.

"It is very strange, it makes you wonder if the PNP machinery is as oiled as the last time," he continues. Party deputy general secretary Julian Robinson says, however, that the PNP ads are to be launched very soon.

Respectful but forceful

Simpson Miller has warned that when her party opens its arsenal, they will be respectful but forceful. She has signalled that the PNP will use clips of Opposition Leader Bruce Golding saying that he was associated with gunmen.

Political pundits are not so certain just how effective the JLP ads have been, despite their apparent popularity. Analyst Richard Crawford is not so certain either. He suggests the nature of the JLP ads could in fact be working in favour of the PNP, but it is not a certainty.

"There is a view that the G2K ads really were a little off target. It patched several things together, out of context, to come up with that finished product," says Crawford. He says the PNP might have been able to use the ads' catch phrase, 'not changing no course', to reflect the positive things that have been done by the party.

Chang, however, does not see it that way. He feels the PNP may have had less to gain, simply because of Simpson Miller's reaction to the ad. Chang says her stance that the G2K ads have in fact been working in her favour is contrary to the less popular ad launched by the PNP Youth Organisation defending the party president.

serious implications

Meanwhile, the analysts say there could be some serious implications for the PNP if Mrs. Simpson Miller fails to announce the election date today. Chang argues that it can be a sign that the party is not very confident.

"If you're confident, why would you keep putting it off so much?" he asks. He comments that the date has been put off so many times people may be growing weary. "And if you are the Government in power and people are growing tired and wary, they might just take it out on you, and that would be dangerous,"he continues.

Crawford agrees. He says people are expecting an announcement so they can get over the election and return to their normal lives. "If you keep the doors open in a political contest, anything can happen in a day in politics that can make a big difference to an existing situation," says Crawford.