Cedric Wilson, Contributor

It was a massive crowd that filled every square centimetre of Half-Way Tree last Sunday when Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller announced election day. She raised a brass trumpet above her head and declared the date August 27. And the crowd dressed in saffron danced.

Interestingly, in making the announcement, the Prime Minister connected the event to a whole series of sevens - Jamaica's seven National Heroes; her being the seventh Prime Minister; a nomination day set for August 7, and so on.

However, it was not until the day after that a couple of political geeks with an appetite for arithmetic discovered that the number of days spanning the announcement and election were equal to seven squared. Since then the significance of seven has dominated the talk shows and have commanded respectable blocks in the newspapers.

These discussions at best amount to nothing more than vapid religious prattle and pseudo-intellectual drivel and Mrs. Simpson Miller cannot escape some responsibility for this. After all, she was the one who initiated it. However, it would come as a big surprise if Mrs. Simpson Miller actually believes that the symbolism of seven will give her party victory. The chain of sevens, for all its mystical appeal, for all its mathematical intrigue, is nothing more than comic relief. Indeed, the real factors that will determine the outcome of the election are personality and policy.

Recent polls from both Bill Johnson and Don Anderson put the People's National Party (PNP) marginally ahead. According to the Bill Johnson poll, 38 per cent of the electorate support the PNP and 31 per cent back the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). Don Anderson's poll reveals that 29 per cent favour the PNP,against 25 per cent for the JLP.

But what is unsettling is that the potential voters that are undecided range between 27 per cent and 39 per cent. By any standard this is large. From these statistics the election can go either way. The only thing that is clear, at this stage, is that the outcome is unclear.

Bruce's personality

The question that invariably arises about the polls is why after four terms and 18 years in opposition is the JLP not doing better? The answer that is often given is that it's related to the personality of its leader, Bruce Golding. And yet he is articulate, he has a sharp mind and has considerable experience in politics. However, there is evidence which suggests that in politics personality is a critical factor in winning.

Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner in their book Freakanomics argue that it is a candidate's intrinsic appeal rather than the size of his campaign fund that largely determines an electoral outcome. The classic example is Thomas Golisano, a billionaire, who ran for governor of New York in 1994, 1998 and 2002.

In those three elections Golisano spent US$93 million of his own money, and failed dismally in each attempt. It is that intrinsic appeal that frequently separates the winner from the loser. Levitt and Dubner contend that "a winning candidate can cut his spending by half and lose only one per cent of the vote. Meanwhile, a losing candidate who doubles his spending can expect to shift the vote in his favour by only one per cent." Mrs. Simpson Miller has her shortcomings, but she has an inexplicable appeal that her opponent lacks.

In reacting to the announcement the JLP has stepped up its campaign by focusing on an important policy issue - education. The main plank of the policy is the abolition of the cost-sharing model in secondary schools and the introduction of free education. Mr. Golding was unequivocal: Parents who pay tuition fees for the new September school year would be refunded in full, if the JLP wins the election.

Certainly, this move is strategic given the proximity of election day to the beginning of the next school year. While it is recognised that education at the primary and secondary levels is critical to the development process there is a certain degree of scepticism about the JLP's approach, for two reasons.

First, there is the view that what is needed is not so much an egalitarian approach, but excellence. As such, the emphasis should not be on doing away with school fees but finding a way to make the children leaving school graduate with better results. This is not to say that special programmes should not be designed to assist the poor with school fees but the focus should be on quality.

The argument of finance

Second, there is the argument of finance. In recent times Jamaica experimented with free education but later substituted it with the cost-sharing model because of budgetary constraints. The question, therefore, is how will a JLP administration implement a free education model that is sustainable without increasing the tax burden or the quantum of debt? These are issues that Mr. Golding must address if he is to win over the sceptics. Simply dismissing the issue on the grounds that if money can be found for other things it can be found for education is not good enough.

If it is assumed that personality is a given, and that the huge block of undecided voters in the polls will decide the outcome, then the fundamental theme of economic development, with all its dimensions and its trade-offs, must occupy centre stage.

This is the policy upon which all policies must rest. For surely there are many Jamaicans who are seriously interested in the mathematics of seven squared. These are the voters who interpret seven times seven to mean an economy that will grow at a minimum of seven per cent for seven consecutive years.

Cedric Wilson is an economics consultant who specialises in market regulations. Send your comments to: conoswil@hotmail.com.