Byron Buckley, Associate Editor
With general election set for August 27, the ruling People’s National Party (PNP) and Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) have maintained their relative standings in public opinion during the past four weeks. But each party has increased its individual share of electoral support, according to the results of a recent Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll.
Johnson’s poll, conducted on July 14 and 15 among 1,008 people in 84 communities across the island, measured electoral support for the PNP at 40 per cent and 34 per cent for the JLP.
The pollster’s findings a month earlier had placed the PNP at 38 per cent, and the JLP at 31 per cent. In the latest results, the JLP has made a one-percentage point gain on the PNP, but this is statistically insignificant in light of the poll’s plus or minus three per cent error margin.
Uncommitted electors represented 11 per cent of respondents, while persons planning not to vote totalled 14 per cent.
Gains and losses
Commenting on his findings, Johnson says the JLP “has done a better job of persuading young voters to support them since May”. The party’s support in the 18-24 age group recorded a 16 percentage point increase during the last three months. It has also made a 10-point gain among persons ages 25-34 for the same period. The PNP has made a two percentage point slip among both age groups combined since May.
“The PNP, on the other hand, has consolidated and gained support among the older voters,” notes Johnson. His latest findings show support for the PNP among the age group 55 and older, making a 15 percentage point increase since May. In contrast, the JLP has gained only a two percentage point movement.
The JLP’s battle cry for a change of course will be played out between these two demographic groups, because the young are traditionally in favour of change, while the elderly tend to be conservative.
While the old and the young generally have staked their party allegiance, Johnson’s poll has found that the PNP and JLP are battling for the support of middle-aged (35-54) electors. Since May the PNP has gained 11 percentage points support among persons in their mid-thirties and early forties, while the JLP has remained constant. However, among persons in their mid-forties and early fifties the JLP has gained 11 percentage points over the last three months, with the PNP losing 10 points.
According to the July poll results, both parties are faring equally well among men, but women still support the PNP by a significant margin -10 percentage points.
Furthermore, the poll, conducted exactly a week after Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller announced the election date at a mass meeting in Half Way Tree, St. Andrew, has detected a significant increase -10 per cent- since June in the number of persons who believe things are going in the right direction in the country. There also has been a concomitant decrease by five percentage points of persons who have a negative outlook of life in Jamaica; but total “wrong direction” responses are still high at 55 per cent.
At the community level, the pollster found a six-point increase in the number of persons who believe things are going in the right direction. Correspondingly, there is a six-point decrease in the number of respondents who believe things are going in the wrong direction in their communities.
Among the things respondents identified as most pressing problems nationally as well as greatest local needs are jobs (68 per cent), crime and violence (61 per cent), road conditions (18 per cent), water problems (17 per cent), financial problems (six per cent), and education (six per cent). Compared to the June poll results, there has been a three-point decrease in the number of persons who identify unemployment as the greatest need. Those who identify crime as the most pressing problem have decreased by four points.
