Byron Buckley, Associate Editor

The Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has improved its chances for the August 27 election by grabbing a crucial five percentage points in electoral support among working-class electors between mid-June and mid-July, according to the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll results.

During the same period the ruling People's National Party (PNP) made a 15-point jump in electoral support to maintain its grip on upper middle-class electors.

The JLP's recent performance among the lower socio-economic group has put it within striking distance of the PNP's standing among these electors. Johnson's poll, conducted in mid-July, measured a three-point gain for the governing party during the same period, placing it at 40 per cent and the JLP at 38 per cent.

Statistical deadheat

With the poll's error margin being plus or minus three per cent, both parties are in a statistical dead heat as they tussle to gain electoral advantage among thelower socio-economic grouping, where a bounty of votes exists. When the performance of both parties are viewed since Johnson's poll findings in May, the JLP has gained seven points and the PNP 10 among the working class.

But with the momentum going, lately, in the JLP's favour, Johnson suggests this may be due to the fact that the lower-income earners are "feeling the brunt" of the country's economic condition. He surmises, too, that this socio-economic group would likely benefit from the promise of free education offered by the JLP. Johnson makes the telling point that working-class electors who naturally admire Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller may be preparing to "vote by their pockets rather than from their hearts".

Meanwhile, the PNP, which is traditionally viewed as the party of the intelligentsia and the professional classes, appears to have successfully energised this support base since Johnson's survey team last went into the field in mid-June.

His latest poll was conducted among 1,008 residents in 84 communities across the island a week after Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller announced August 27 as election day at a mass rally in Half-Way Tree Square in St. Andrew.

13-point difference

The event was widely received via the electronic media. While Johnson's July poll found the PNP increasing its support among upper middle-class electors to 48 per cent, the JLP dropped a point to 27 per cent, resulting in a 13-point difference between both parties among this affluent socio-economic group.

The relative party standings among the lower-middle class have remained intact with the PNP (40 per cent) enjoying a 10-point lead over the JLP (30 per cent). Johnson's latest poll findings also place the PNP and JLP even at 33 per cent each among upper-class electors.

Overall, Johnson's July poll results place the PNP at 40 per cent and the JLP at 34 per cent in popular standings.

Party preference by classes (%)

May June July

PNP JLP PNP JLP PNP JLP