John Rapley

It seems that scarcely a day goes by that U.S. Republicans do not get more bad news. Earlier this week, President Bush's embattled Attorney General succumbed to intense Congressional pressure, not to mention scathing media scrutiny, and resigned. Following so soon after Karl Rove's departure, the announcement left Mr. Bush ever more of a lame duck.

In the meantime, the U.S. credit crunch seems to be worsening. The announcement that average house prices in the U.S. have fallen by the largest amount in at least half a century deepened the economic gloom. Stock prices fell, and the television pundits warned a recession was imminent. Polls suggest that Americans are now more pessimistic about the economy than they have ever been during the Bush presidency.

This is a particularly troubling omen for Mr. Bush. When his father ran for re-election 15 years ago, the U.S. economy was bouncing back from a recession. But it wasn't apparent to ordinary Americans yet, and he went to defeat on election day. Visions of "It's the economy stupid" returning to haunt his successor as the Republican nominee must surely be bothering Mr. Bush.

Turn to their base

In times like these, the Republicans turn to their base - the voters who support the party not for its economic competence, but for its family values. So it hardly helped when it was revealed that a Republican Senator was arrested in a men's room in the Minneapolis airport for soliciting what might be called an intimate conversation.

A tide of despondence is washing over Republicans. A year away from elections, Democrats can taste victory. Therefore, Republicans recently turned to their secret weapon, the one they keep for the desperate times that need desperate measures.

The Clintons. Political analysts have noted that in recent weeks, senior Republican strategists have been going out of their way to decry Hilary Clinton. What is puzzling to observers is that each time Republicans do so, her standing in the race for the Democratic nomination improves. Privately, Mrs. Clinton's own people are delighted at this hostile attention.

It does not appear to be ineptitude that is driving the Republicans, though. They appear to know what they are doing. With a close eye on the polls, they know that another Clinton candidacy is the one thing that could get their base to look past their party's troubles and turn out to vote. To the values voter, slack senators is one thing; Bill Clinton back in the White House is another.

Clintons demoralise liberal Democrats

Moreover, Republicans know that the Clintons not only energise Republicans, they demoralise liberal Democrats. A significant portion of the Democratic electorate has told pollsters that it would never vote if Hilary got the nomination. No other candidate, from either party, excites such negatives.

So a Clinton candidacy looks to be the Republicans' best hope. Of course, the strategy could backfire.

Democratic supporters could see through the Republican plan and punish the party after all.

But at this stage, it's probably the party's best hope. For all the bungling in the Republican Party, it has one advantage over the Democrats, which even Democrats quietly acknowledge. Though it may be tired and increasingly less popular, the Republican Party at least has a message. Democrats have yet to cohere around any theme other than 'Throw out Bush.'

Of course, Mr. Bush won't be running next year. By turning the light on a message - the Clinton strategy of centrism and 'triangulation' - that has yet to win over the Democratic Party, the Republicans are hoping to take some heat off of themselves.

And if Hilary does get the nomination next year, it just might work.