Robert Buddan

Jamaicans will elect a parliament tomorrow. In 1991, Carl Stone reported that 60 per cent of Jamaicans felt that more women should be in leadership positions in politics. We will see if this is enough of a factor to re-elect Portia Simpson Miller as Prime Minister.

In another survey, Stone reported that year that Jamaicans wanted a leader who could make tough decisions, provide sound economic management, display high levels of integrity, show concern for the poor, and is guided by religious values. How much will this decide the election between Portia Simpson Miller and Bruce Golding?

'DEAN' A FACTOR

The Gleaner/Bill Johnson poll, published last week, showed that Hurricane Dean had become a new factor in how the electors feel.

Many observers now believe that the elections will come down to which party can get its supporters out in greater numbers and whether voters will take their distress with Hurricane Dean and the rate of post-hurricane recovery with them to the polls.

The polls now confirm that this could be the deciding factor. The effects of the hurricane could affect voter turnout but we don't know to what extent. The People's National Party (PNP) will hope that one week after the surveys were conducted, the distress would have lessened enough for it to be returned to power.

There are many critical but unknown factors also involved - a party seeking its fifth straight term; a female prime minister seeking her first mandate; an election coming two weeks after a hurricane; the possibility of Bruce Golding becoming first-time Prime Minister; a contest close enough for many to reserve their prediction with even the chance of a 30-30 seat tie; and the threat by the PNP to seek the disqualification of some Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) candidates believed to have dual citizenship, which could radically effect the balance of party power in parliament after the elections.

In such circumstances, it is difficult to know which factors will prevail. Golding said the JLP has won the ad campaign, the national debates and now only needs to win the elections.

Of course, winning the elections is the whole point but according to the Johnson polls, the JLP's late momentum is accountable for by support from the previously uncommitted. However, the uncommitted provide weak support and are unreliable as voters.

Yet, the polls show an additional gain for the JLP arising from dissatisfaction amongst those most seriously affected by the hurricane.

The PNP says it has the leader that most Jamaicans prefer, that it has mainly remained ahead of the JLP in the polls and that its plans are actual programmes being implemented, not just promises.

But the PNP has not been able to match the seemingly unlimited campaign funds of the JLP its support seems more solid, it has not been able to extend it.

Yet, that support is more stable and committed than the JLP support. The PNP remains the preferred party by those least to have suffered from the hurricane but not among those to have suffered the most.

PNP EXPERIENCE

Should the PNP win, it will continue on its course of programmes, as it has said, but Golding also said in the national debate that should he win he would continue many of the policies and programmes of the PNP.

But the JLP's claims that it would do even more rest on the troublesome question of where the money will come from, especially considering hurricane costs, and whether that new spending can be sustained without destabilising the economy.

Its claims that it can do other things better depend on how practical it will prove to be and what its lack of experience will mean in running the country and negotiating with international partners.

The PNP's claims are less mysterious and difficult to understand because they have been on show over the years. There is little about them requiring speculation. The PNP can even claim that it has the experience of taking the country out of the distress caused by Hurricane Dean and Hurricane Ivan.

The PNP can claim that being in power for 18 years is an advantage. It has been at the steering wheel though the adjustment to globalisation, public sector reform, deepening regional integration, and in the process has constructed a different kind of state-market-civil society relationship while being in a position to see from experience what has worked and what needs further refinement or even abandonment.

This is not an argument for a party to rule perennially. But the failures and shortcomings of the Government have not been such as to alienate the population if we are to go by the polls. The polls show that there is no difference between the parties on favourability ratings and perception of which party is best for running the country. It is when there is alienation that a party can justifiably be turned out of government.

There has been no really big issue around which the JLP has been able to galvanise anger or anxiety against the PNP of the likes of federation in 1962 or socialism in 1980.

Hurricane Dean has become the big issue, but that is an act of nature. What the JLP has been able to do is play on the 18 years of PNP governments and the sentiments for change; and it has been able to do so because of the big treasure chest of campaign funding behind its advertising blitz.

It might even be able to better afford to truck its supporters to the polling stations and pick up a safe margin of victory.

While the JLP has naturally harped on the negatives of the society, it cannot convince people that important strides have not been made in poverty reduction, job creation, plans to transform health and education, attraction of investments, strengthening of foreign reserves, containment of inflation, tourism development, and building the basis for strong growth and more widespread modern infrastructure.

OPPOSITION BENEFITS

The JLP has even benefited from some of these successes. The large debt that accumulated from rescuing the financial sector and many of its big players, now allow those players to put their profits into the JLP's campaign.

The Opposition needs a free and fair election system and Jamaica's system now inspires such confidence that the Carter Centre says it sees no need to send election observers to the country. The media remains free to play its own politics, even when it is to the service of the JLP.

The only big issue that the JLP could have credibly used was the rate of crime and violence. Surprisingly, it has soft-pedalled on this and nothing in the debates suggested that it had anything different to offer.

Therefore, despite the four PNP terms, the PNP would have easily won an election had it been called this time last year, or even as late as July, a mere month ago. The PNP will hope that, between the time the last polls were done and election day, more people would have recovered from the hurricane to give it a victory tomorrow.

The Electoral Office of Jamaica has given us reasonto be confident that voting will be competently administered. May our democratic system come through the elections with distinction and may the winners and losers accept the results with grace or contest results in the established way.

In a close election where every seat counts, no party can afford to have constituency results annulled. This is all the more reason for them to make elections free and fair.

Robert Buddan lectures in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona. E-mail: Robert.Buddan@uwimona.edu.jm.