Daraine Luton, Sunday Gleaner Reporter

Robertson

DESPITE recent opinion polls showing the 'Portia Train' running out of steam metres away from the finish line, People's National Party (PNP) campaign director, Dr. Paul Robertson, seems convinced that the party has done enough work to make it into the winners' enclosure.

"The confidence level in the PNP is excellent. I have watched many elections and I see us poised to do what we have to do," Robertson told The Sunday Gleaner.

Simpson Miller's PNP has slipped in popular standing from 40 per cent in July to 38 per cent when Bill Johnson last polled on August 25 and 26.

The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), on the other hand, has climbed from 31 per cent in June to 42 per cent when Johnson last polled for The Gleaner.

A subsequent poll in July, conducted days after Simpson Miller named the election date, found the PNP leading 40-34 in relation to who Jamaicans wanted to form the next government.

Then, Robertson told The Sunday Gleaner that he was "not surprisedby the results, but I am a little concerned that we are not farther ahead."

The PNP since then has lost two points in the polls while the JLP has gained eight points. The PNP had entered the 2002 election with a seven-point lead, but Robertson insists the party is not currently in the departure lounge.

"We are in a better position now than we were in 2002," he asserts.

Believes in PNP return

Many political analysts and commentators have said the election is too close to call. Others have said that the 18-year reign of the PNP government will come to an end tomorrow night.

However, the PNP campaign director says he is armed with data from polling several constituencies and he is comfortable the PNP will be returned to power.

"My confidence is grounded in the data and information I have - constituency by constituency," Robertson says.

Pollster Bill Johnson has said incumbents are under threat.

Robertson admits that this may be so, noting that "incumbents always have a special challenge".

Many PNP candidates who were more favourable in the eyes of voters have fallen behind since Hurricane Dean slammed the island two weeks ago.

Johnson also found the PNP's losing ground in the polls to be closely related to the passage of Hurricane Dean.

"Natural disasters don't help any incumbent parties. My understanding is that incumbents get blamed for things like natural disasters," Robertson acknowledges.

With about 20 safe seats, the PNP, analysts believe, will be hard-pressed to take battleground constituencies. But, Robertson says, the party hopes to win in many of these seats: "We are working with that in mind, but only time will tell."