John Rapley, Contributor

International pressure continues to build on the Burmese regime. When monks took to the streets to join popular protests against the rising cost of living, the military cracked down. But not before the images we have all seen made it from cellphones to the world's televisions.

Now, even friendly governments are joining the chorus of condemnation, sometimes using coded language that nevertheless reveals diplomatic isolation.

Diplomatic language may seem a meaningless response to the killing of monks. Nevertheless, it may speak to the increasing isolation of the Burmese regime. The Government in Rangoon, or Yangon, as it is now called, is finding few friends abroad at a time when it is even less loved at home.

Relatively soft line

Still, as we keep hearing, nothing much will happen until China and India take firm action. And there is probably a limit to how much pressure they will independently place on Burma. So far, the Indian Government has taken a relatively soft line. Economic and strategic concerns prevail in New Delhi. India is waging war on rebels in its northeast, and the Burmese military has been an important ally in its campaign. It does not want to antagonise the generals unless it smells their imminent departure.

Besides, India does not want to lose diplomatic and economic leverage to its arch-rival in the region, China. China provides essential support to the Burmese regime, and a hard line out of New Delhi would be sure to tip the balance of influence in Burma in favour of Beijing.

Common front remote

Neither China nor India can afford to lose their access to the country. Both economies are booming, and their future need for the primary resources that Burma has in abundance will only grow. Both countries, therefore, see it as economic suicide to jeopardise their access to their sources of raw materials. And a common front on Burma between India and China seems a rather remote dream.

It may be that the best hope for those who want to see a democratic Burma is to persuade India or China to blink first. Sentimentally, the hearts of the Indian Government may be with the monks. India is, after all, the world's biggest democracy, and there's little of the fondness for dictatorial regimes that Beijing's communists have no trouble tolerating.

Were China to pressure Burma, then, India might come on board. China's foreign policy is opportunistic. It cares not about who it deals with, as long as it can get its hands on resources. That may seem an encumbrance on progress, but it may actually present an opportunity to the outside world. Precisely because China does not want to look like it supports bullies, just months before the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics, it may be more susceptible to pressure than usual.

Army control

Nevertheless, neither Beijing nor New Delhi is likely to move far if they are not first persuaded that the Burmese regime is, in fact, internally vulnerable. That remains to be seen. Much has been made of the fact that the government's already weak legitimacy will have been further harmed by its assault on the country's revered monasteries. But the army's control over Burmese life remains great. Its ability to hamstring the opposition is clear.

At the end of the day, therefore, it is probably not the outside world which will bring regime change to Burma. It is the Burmese people. Sooner or later, they will grow exhausted of a regime that shows itself wholly unable to respond to their aspirations. But whether or not that point has already been reached, we will just have to wait and see.

John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, University of the West Indies, Mona.