Daraine Luton & Gareth Manning, Sunday Gleaner Reporters

Ready, set, go! Governor-General Professor Kenneth Hall (second left), Prime Minister Bruce Golding (centre), and president of Grupo Iberostar, Don Miguel Fluxa (right), are about to cut the ribbon to officially open the Elegant Corridor's newest hotel, Iberostar Rose Hall, yesterday. Sharing in the occasion were: Spanish Ambassador, Jesús Silva (left), Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett (second right) and Councillor Noel Donaldson (partly hidden), Mayor of Montego Bay. - photo by Janet Silvera

With the local government elections only three days away, a Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has placed both major political parties in a dead heat, with 31 per cent each in approval ratings.

Johnson's polls were conducted on November 24 and 25 among 1,008 residents in 84 communities across the island. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

Nine per cent of persons surveyed were undecided about which party they would vote for, nine per cent refused to state a preference and 20 per cent said they would not cast a ballot.

"All things being equal, the votes are going to be distributed in the same way they were distributed nationally in the general election," commented Johnson.

But he said that neither these statistics nor the fact that only 3,000 votes separated both parties in the recent general election is an indication of how the parties will do in Wednesday's municipal elections."That does not give a true picture. Probably a true indication is the way people voted per division," the pollster suggested.

The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won far more divisions and ,thus, parishes in the general election. In fact, the People's National Party (PNP) only won the parishes of Westmoreland and Manchester, along with the municipality of Portmore. And despite the PNP winning both parliamentary seats in Hanover, the JLP won more parish council divisions there.

Johnson also found that of those surveyed, 71 percent who voted JLP in September will not switch their votes on Wednesday, while 72 percent of those who voted for the PNP said they would stand firm. Thirteen percent of those who voted JLP in the general elections indicated that they will not vote; while 15 per cent of PNP voters said they would miss the local polls.

"Ground organisation is what will determine these elections and the JLP had a better operation in the general election," Johnson stated.

Political analyst, Richard Crawford believes with the parties in a grid lock, the outcome of the local government elections will depend on the party that has the resources to get supporters out.

He agrees that the organisational capabilities of the parties will be a deciding factor.

"I would think that at this point in time the parties would be motivating their supporters and really adding much dynamism to encourage people to want to go out to vote," he said. "A low poll definitely is what I feel," Crawford remarked.

Sunday Gleaner columnist Kevin Obrien Chang believes the final results will reflect how people feel about the parties and the leaders. But with polls showing a more positive favourability rating for Prime Minister Bruce Golding than PNP president Portia Simpson Miller, Obrien Chang believes the PNP might not do any better than it did in the 2003 polls. He argues that with the waning of the Portia factor the PNP might even do worse than it did in the general elections.

"It would be very very surprising, as in the general election, if that wasn't repeated, possibly with a larger margin ... " Obrien Chang reasoned.