Daraine Luton, Sunday Gleaner Reporter

Desmond McKenzie (left), Jamaica Labour Party candidate for the Tivoli division, flashes a smile as an Electoral Office of Jamaica official counts his nomination fees bearing the image of former party leader Sir Donald Sangster, while present leader Bruce Golding looks on.-Rudolph Brown/Chief Photographer

Prime MinIster Bruce Golding celebrates his 60th birthday on Wednesday, the same day Jamaicans vote in the local government elections.

He has asked the electorate to put their confidence in Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) councillor candidates and elect them to serve as parish councillors.

This, for Golding, would be a happy birthday gift, especially since the most recent Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson polls dethroned Portia Simpson Miller as the more popular politician.

Despite running a relatively low-key campaign, the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) expects to do better than it did in the 2003 municipal elections when it won only Westmoreland, and later added Portland. This is apart from the Portmore municipality which the PNP won. Basil Waite, PNP national organiser, says the party expects to win two to three parish councils, one being Westmoreland - safe PNP territory. But where will the other seats come from?

initial analysis

The Sunday Gleaner analysis of the political waters suggests that the Kingston and St. Andrew Corporation (KSAC) may not be in that small number the PNP will count on Wednesday night. Nor will the parishes of St. Elizabeth, St. James, Trelawny, Clarendon, St. Catherine and St. Thomas.

The PNP had tied with the JLP in Clarendon, but the tide has since shifted. The parish - with six parliamentary constituencies - is represented by five JLP Members of Parliament.

The PNP's best chances are in the parishes of Portland, St. Mary and Manchester. In addition, Hanover, which is represented by PNP Members of Parliament, is being targeted by the PNP. The party believes that it can win the Chester Castle division, which voted Labour in the general election, and turn the tables on the JLP in that parish.

Battlegrounds have also been established in Portland and St. Mary. The PNP won six of the nine political divisions in Portland. The PNP believe that it can win St. Margaret's Bay, a division the party lost by 219 in the general election. Joseph Wallen is up against the JLP's Floyd Patterson there. Add to that the Balcarres division, which the party lost by 944 votes in the general election. Doreen Forbes, who was the candidate for West Portland before she resigned, is leading the PNP's charge there against Gulab Dukharan of the JLP, which is out to sweep the parish council elections.

If they are successful in these two divisions, the PNP will win Portland five seats to four the JLP seems to have the edge.

St. Mary, a parish with 13 divisions, had voted for eight JLP councillors in 2003. The PNP sliced off one of those in the general elections and has taken aim at Boscobel, which the JLP won by two votes and Retreat, which the Labourites also took by 99.

same voting behaviour

Pollster Johnson says that he expects the same voting behaviour as was in the general election and, thus, the JLP should win most councils, as also the marginal seats.

His most recent survey for The Gleaner shows that only three percent of the people who voted for the JLP in the general election will be voting for the PNP.

"I can't see the PNP carrying Portland or St. Mary or Hanover," he tells The Sunday Gleaner.

"The party that has the better ground organisation will win the close parishes, and coming out of the general election the JLP were better on the ground and I don't expect this to change," Johnson said.

See more election watch stories on Page D13.

Sunday Gleaner's key predictions

Westmoreland - PNP (14-1)

Manchester - PNP (8/7)

St. Mary JLP(7/6)

Portmore - PNP (6-5)