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Stabroek News

ANALYSIS - High US grain prices fail to slow global demand
published: Friday | December 14, 2007

World grain buyers, fearful that soaring prices for U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat may rise even higher in 2008, have snapped up the commodities while other countries raise export taxes or halt overseas sale.

All this is worrying for an economy like Jamaica's, which imports almost all of its requirement for grains and has been hit hard in recent months by rocketing prices for the commodities.

"It's a seller's market right now," said a trader in the Midwest. "There aren't many places you can go to for corn and wheat right now. "We're not rationing the world's appetite for U.S grains and oilseeds at current price levels yet."

Soybean futures have hit a 34-year high and many analysts forecast prices going over $12 a bushel next year. U.S. wheat futures hit an all-time high in September, and prices may rise again to above US$9.

Corn prices have fallen below US$4 a bushel after hitting a 10-year high, but analysts say they could storm to more than $5 in 2008.

Fear of prices rising further has spurred many countries that normally buy grain two to three months in advance to buy four to six months ahead of time.

"Most importing countries are trying to stay ahead of others so they are buying out further for protection," said John Crabb of TradeWest Brokerage Company.

South Korean feed millers recently embarked upon buying corn for March through June arrival - far ahead of their normal schedule.

U.S. export sales to South Korea topped 750,000 tonnes for the week ended November 22 - the country's biggest weekly purchase in 12 years, according to USDA data.

"They feel that once the harvest is over prices will only rise and now is a good time to buy," said a trader.

WHEAT IN SHORTEST SUPPLY

Buyers and sellers are most concerned about the availability of wheat - used to make bread and other staples throughout the world. Global stocks are forecast to fall to their lowest level in 30 years.

"If we don't ration the export pace, we're going to run out," said a wheat broker. "Australia doesn't have much. Argentina will only have so much. Everyone has been buying from the U.S. but at some point we will also run out."

Both Russia and Argentina have raised export taxes to reduce the amount of wheat sold abroad. Earlier this month, the Ukraine decided to delay exports until January 1.

Australia, usually a large exporter behind the United States, has suffered back-to-back droughts that slashed the size of its wheat crop and left little for export.

And weather is not favourable for next year's wheat crop.

U.S. wheat condition ratings have fallen for four straight weeks due to insufficient rain. Frost in Argentina could reduce the size of the crop in the world's No. 3 wheat exporter by 2 million tonnes.

- Reuters

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