As the year draws to a close, it might be worth reflecting on events passed. The biggest of which is a change of government after 18 years of PNP leadership. The common banter at year-end is usually out with the old and in with the new. Has this been the case since the swearing in of the Right Honourable Bruce Golding and his Cabinet? As the ninth Prime Minister to assume the reins of power, what were the merits or demerits of a change of course? Furthermore, given the performance of the new administration in the last quarter of 2007, what should the country anticipate for the future of Jamaica?
When the JLP Government came into office, they knew that the institutions, infrastructure and ethos of the nation were in dire straits. They found themselves constrained by the 33 1/3 per cent increase in oil prices since the beginning of the year, $15.4 billion in non-budgeted debts inherited from the previous administration, $23 billion in damages caused by Hurricane Dean and the simultaneous rise in food prices against the devaluing dollar. Despite these mitigating factors, the new regime has a responsibility to honour its manifesto tagline of 'A Better Way ... for a better Jamaica.'
Hurricane Dean
While a honeymoon period for new administrations is customary, there was little luxury for the Bruce Golding-led Cabinet. They were criticised during the election race for making wild and perhaps misleading promises. Along with some focal matters addressed throughout their campaign, the havoc caused by Dean dictated an imminent response. These pressing matters as outlined in the swearing speech included the abolition of school fees; the creation of a new framework for good governance, strengthening the role of the Opposition in Parliament; anti-corruption legislation, crime and justice reform.
The outlay for Hurricane Dean was in excess of $2 billion. According to reports made by the Finance Minister Audley Shaw, financing for the recovery effort will comprise a mix of resources, the bulk of which comes from multilateral loans amounting to $1.2 billion. Multilateral grants and bilateral grants amount to $965 million and $214.2 million respectively, with local contributions at $217 million. Shaw further indicated that sums were to be allocated as follows: $490 million for the recovery of the transport and works sector, $558 million will be spent to repair schools for the financial year, 150 million has been set aside to carry out repairs on public buildings, $182 million for the relocation of persons, and the reconstruction of houses and $156 million for agriculture.
While the recovery effort is laudable, the government must recognise that globally there has been a shift towards risk mitigation. Response though critical should no longer be the main focus of the disaster co-ordinating agency.
EDUCATION
In CaPRI's Hurricane Dean assessment, we found that there is greater need for a protracted campaign of hazard awareness and training at the community level so as to enhance the citizenry's level of preparedness. We also argue that speedier restoration of critical services is the only way to hasten the bounce-back potential and reduce the economic losses from downtime.
Stemming from their platform promises, the payout to schools proved yet another huge draw on the state's coffer. According to the Ministry of Education, it effectively cost $900 million to abolish school fees for fiscal year 2007/2008, all of which essentially has been disbursed.
While there were no other education targets for the first 100 days of office, several proposals were outlined in the JLP's manifesto. Many of these came out of the report from the Task Force on Education Transformation. The Government has admitted that the country simply does not have the capacity to expend the recommended $22 billion on education. However, discussions with multilaterals like the World Bank have begun in an effort to secure this mammoth funding. There has also been initiative on Early Childhood education as evidenced by the Ministry's move toward compulsory registration of these early childhood institutions.
JUSTICE
As part of the national outcry over allegations of police brutality, Cabinet has issued drafting instructions for an independent investigative body. The commission to be established is mandated to investigate the excessive use of force and instances of abuse by members of the security forces. This body came out of the Jamaicans for Justice submission: Tackling Police Corruption, Restoring Public Confidence. Essentially, the (IIB) is to replace and enhance the work of the Police Public Complaints Authority. Similar approval was granted for the creation of a special prosecutor's office. This office will subsume the current Corruption Prevention Commission. The mandate of the new bodys according to Senator Dorothy Lightbourne, will be broader than the commission, tackling corruption both in the public and private sectors. The Government has indeed shown some commitment to this issue as evidenced by an investigation into the light bulb scandal and the Senate's approval of a ministerial order to permit the Dutch to continue investigations into the $30-million Trafigura debacle.
The Prime Minister was adept at highlighting the litany of woes during campaigning, but there has been no affirmative advance on the recommendations of the Jamaica Justice System Reform Task Force.
CRIME
Golding appeared largely to commit his Cabinet to tasks that did not require a huge capital outlay, yet proposals such as legislation for Restorative Justice or Community Justice Tribunals were omitted from his plan of action over the past 100 days. Further, the elimination of the case backlog and the establishment of a Permanent Law Reform Commission are two critical recommendations that if addressed would have demonstrated the seriousness of the Government's plan for a new Jamaica.
The Achilles' tendon of crime is possibly the biggest challenge, but receives the least resources. As crime spirals out of control, the Government was either delayed or stymied in its interventions. Between September and November there have been a recorded 445 murders. What has become of their manifesto pledges and The MacMillian Report, commissioned while in Opposition? There has been no advance on crushing organised crime, the Assets Forfeiture Act delinking parties and criminals and depoliticising the police. To combat a worsening crisis the Cabinet approves a negligible $280 million for the Ministry of National Security.
There has been a curious spike in murders since the beginning of the JLP's term of office. While it might be incredulous to attribute cause to the new administration, they still have to assume responsibility as the governing party - there is no more passing the blame. Added to which, it would also help public confidence, if the Minister of National Security desists from making insensitive statements about reducing crime by 40 per cent without indicating how this will be accomplished, or a timeline for realisation. His efforts would be better spent in implementing the manifesto pledges, of which none has been undertaken.
GOVERNANCE
In its manifesto, the JLP asserted that, "Policies and programmes ... will succeed only if they are implemented within a framework of good governance." While most of the oversight committees in Parliament are chaired by the Opposition as at November 13, the Government's posture has become less than conciliatory. The insulation of constitutional bodies from the reaches of the political authorities was a major campaign platform issue which has been seriously breached by the high-handedness of Golding in his treatment of the Public Service Commission and Professor Stephen Vasciannie as solicitor general-designate.
INVESTMENTS
The imposition of defeated candidate Joan Gordon-Webley as head of a state body may also undermine the Prime Minister's pre-election rhetoric. Further, political pay-off is in stark display by the appointment of Shirley Williams and her brother, Louis Williams, who are self-confessed JLP activists, as head of Air Jamaica and the Urban Development Corporation, respectively. Sadly, the ill-fated statements by Mr. Warmington and Mr. Montague only add to the perception of JLP double speak.
In his address to the nation on November 11, Mr. Golding outlined a laundry list of problems faced by his administration. Some were old and others new, but all were implicitly blamed on the PNP. There are, however, some good that was inherited by the previous administration. Last year the country received its highest FDI in history, US$850 million. The challenge the Government faces is in translating capital inflows into job creation and economic expansion. The absorptive capacity of the Jamaican economy needs immediate redress, which if done properly can accrue positive results in a short time. With an estimated 80 per cent of the labour force being employed in micro-, small- and medium-size enterprises, the Government has an obligation to provide greater institutional and financial support to these persons. The cycle of investment will not be sustained by mega projects, but rather with initiatives such as the Private Sector Development Programme and Opportunities Expo hosted by Jamaica Trade and Invest.
Given that the Government assumed office with a reach that outstretches its grasp, their performance over the past 100 days should not be judged too harshly. In fairness to Bruce Golding and his Cabinet, many of the goals set out in the inauguration speech were commenced.
Whatever the shortcomings of the new administration over the past three months, they should not be misinterpreted for broken promises. The Government's machinery of change appears to be well greased, but does the engine have enough fuel to stay the course?
This paper is an introduction to CaPRI's endeavour to provide the public with non-partisan and objective analysis of the Government. In the next quarter we will publish our full scorecard of the Government's performance. This paper was the result of three months of monitoring and logging the statements and actions of the Cabinet. We have collated newspaper articles specific to the one-hundred-day goals to provide feeder information for the paper. Further, we have contacted the Office of the Prime Minister, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Education, Office of Disaster and Emergency Management, Jamaica Trade and Invest and Parliament Office to verify and support our research.
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