Our worst fears, sadly, are being realised in Kenya. More than 200 people have been killed in post-election violence, and the country seems in danger of the kind of ethnic upheaval that has elsewhere led to civil war and long-term instability. It cannot, and must not, be allowed to happen.

The trigger for the Kenyan explosion was last week's general election, which the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki, a Kikuyu, claimed to have won, by the narrowest of margins, over his main challenger and one-time colleague Raila Odinga. But Odinga's party and many observers say the counting of the votes was rigged. Believing that the presidency was stolen from them, Odinga's supporters, particularly from his Luo tribe, have been attacking Kikuyus.

We have previously in these columns urged dialogue between the parties and the use of the legal system, but the dynamic is changing rapidly in Kenya. President Kibaki has been talking tough about restoring order and Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement which, significantly, won the majority in Parliament in the same election its leader ostensibly lost, is uncompromising.

Even if Kibaki is able, with the help of the security forces, to prevail in the short term, he is not likely to be able to govern with any legitimacy. He will be hounded and harassed by Odinga's forces in Parliament and could possibly face a no-confidence vote.

But of deeper concern is what is likely to happen in the streets; violence will bring instability and would be a boon for the terrorists who operate in East Africa and the region of the Horn. They would hope to bring Kenya into their orbit.

We in the Caribbean have strong reasons, emotional and otherwise, for wanting to see stability and democracy in Kenya, and can play a role in coaxing the country back to normality.

Jamaica and the Caribbean Community should urge the Commonwealth, of which Kenya is a member, to warn President Kibaki that he risks being pushed out of the club. Pakistan was recently suspended and so has Zimbabwe in the past.

We suggest, too, that an informal Common-wealth contact team, including the former Jamaican Prime Minister P.J. Patterson and the former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who know the major players in Kenya and are likely to have their trust, be appointed to organise a process and timetable for a new and credible presidential election.