Given the projections of a tight race, the scale of the defeat of Owen Arthur's Barbados Labour Party (BLP) in Tuesday's general election was extremely surprising.

However, the big win for the Democratic Labour Party (DLP), after 14 years in opposition, with 20 of the 30 parliamentary seats, is unlikely to lead to any fundamental shift in economic policy in Bridgetown. Critically for Jamaica and Barbados' other partners in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Prime Minister David Thompson can be expected to maintain Barbados' strong regional line, even if not with Arthur's zeal and relish.

There are several reasons why there will be no radical policy departure under the Dems, which have struggled to regain their soul and reconnect with the Barbadian people since the death in 1987 of its founder and inspirational leader, Errol Barrow. Of all the CARICOM members, Barbados is the most socially stable and economically steady performer. Its policy shifts have, for the most part, been measured rather than lurching, reflecting a relatively high degree of consensus in the society.

This is an approach that may not have delivered spectacularly high economic growth rates, but nor have there been spectacular busts. Indeed, Barbados' expansion of its GDP at between 3.0 per cent and 3.5 per cent a year and its consistently high performance on the human development index are achievements many countries, not least in the Caribbean, would like to emulate.

Moreover, Thompson, though only 46, is an experienced politician, who will hardly risk his country's stability by radical experimentation. It is not in the Barbadian character.

First, the election campaign was centred not so much on fundamental issues of direction as an assumption that the Arthur administration, after three consecutive terms, had become fat and arrogant. To give it a fourth, it was argued, would have been dangerous. Voters embraced the DLP's message that it was time for change. Of course, recent inflationary pressures, driven by global conditions, did not help the BLP.

David Thompson has a context from which to approach emerging difficulties in the economy once he can deliver on the promise of improved governance. He was Erskine Sandiford's finance minister in the closing period of the DLP's last administration. He was, therefore, part of a team that pushed through and managed the tough stabilisation measures, including a heavy income tax surcharge, when Barbados faced a fiscal crisis in the early 1990s.

On the regional front, the DLP, like the BLP, has pedigree. Founder Errol Barrow was one of the original signatories to the Caribbean Free Trade Area (Carifta), which evolved into the CARICOM. Prime Minister Thompson will not want to undermine that legacy.

Perhaps the biggest fallout from this election will be Owen Arthur. It is questionable that at 58, having enjoyed a long spell in government, he will have the appetite to warm the opposition benches for too long. In that regard, he might soon make way for his talented deputy, Mia Mottley, which would be good for Barbados and the Caribbean.