John Rapley

The line stretched for half a mile. Some people stood for hours in the cold before the doors were opened. The lucky ones who made it into the auditorium at American University joined an excited, cheering crowd.

They were there to take part in what many considered a historic moment: the symbolic passing of John Kennedy's torch by his brother Edward and daughter Caroline, who had travelled to Washington to announce their formal endorsement of Barack Obama's candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Mr Obama is now what the Americans like to call a phenomenon. To the consternation of Bill and Hillary Clinton, he is the unquestioned darling of the media. Right across the ideological spectrum, journalists have been as charmed by him as they have been angered by the Clintons' apparently failed strategy to inject race into the election campaign.

There has been much speculation in recent weeks that Mrs Clinton's campaign has, by repeatedly making subtle references to Mr Obama's race, tried to turn Hispanic and white working-class voters away from Mr Obama. But any such strategy appeared to fail in South Carolina. Last weekend, Mr Obama trounced Mrs. Clinton, and held his own among white voters.

Controversial attack

The pundits are now saying that Bill Clinton's controversial attack mode will be switched off, because the nasty tactics have failed. Among other things, Mr Kennedy is believed to have been prompted to support Mr Obama because of his anger at Mr Clinton. His speech left no doubt that he wanted to see a stop to the Clintonian strategy of parsing the electorate and appealing to its demographics.

I wouldn't be so sure we've seen the last of the race card, though. Sadly, despite Mr Obama's victory, the strategy doesn't appear, yet, to have failed. Many white voters did flee Obama. The fly in the Clinton ointment is John Edwards, who attracted many of them. If he can be pushed aside, Mrs Clinton may then pick up their support.

So the Clintons may be more subtle, but I doubt they'll be any less nasty. Meanwhile, in Florida, John McCain won a big victory in Tuesday's Republican primary (for internal reasons, the Democratic primary won't count). With a close result expected, and Rudolph Giuliani's intended big start in Florida having flopped, McCain's clear margin of victory catapulted him into the lead. And with Giuliani announcing he'd now support McCain, Mr McCain's position has strengthened.

Loads of cash

His main rival, Mitt Romney, has loads of cash, and will stay the distance. So, too, will the affable Baptist preacher, Mike Huckabee. The party establishment and its conservative base remain distinctly uncomfortable with Mr. McCain: if the maverick senator is generally reliably conservative, he has always retained the right to venture off and denounce his party members when he so chooses.

Nevertheless, polls also say he could be a winner. Peace overtures from some conservatives have started, even if many of their peers vow never to accept John McCain. The big question on the Republican side will, thus, be whether Mr McCain can mend fences with the Republican right.

My hunch is that he now bargains from a strong position. In return for his continued independence, he may promise conservatives Supreme Court nominees that are to their liking. He could live with this. And for the right, it is a big prize. The balance on the US Supreme Court will be tipped decisively by the next president, and conservatives don't want to miss the chance to create the first conservative Supreme Court in memory.

So, while the Democrats tear themselves apart, the Republicans might just coalesce around John McCain. It is a prospect that will worry the Democratic establishment.