John Rapley

All six remaining contestants in the United States presidential primaries were left standing after Super Tuesday. But it looks increasingly likely that the list has been winnowed to three. While Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are still slugging it out over the Democratic nomination, John McCain is - barring a major development - well on his way to locking up the Republican one.

Mr McCain has now secured more than half the delegates he needs to win the vote at next summer's Republican Party convention. While the race is not over, it is difficult to see whence a serious challenge might now emerge. Mitt Romney has the money and determination to go the distance, but he has failed to get traction. For as long as Mike Huckabee keeps running, he will continue to drain support from Mr Romney.

Although Mr Huckabee has no serious chance at the nomination, his ability to keep amassing delegates puts him in a strong position within the party. A McCain-Huckabee ticket does not seem out of the question, especially since John McCain continues to reveal a major weakness in his polling: his support among the Republican base - conservatives and evangelical Christians - is sluggish. Mr Huckabee could help him here, and the vice-presidency would be a pretty good prize for a man who must know he cannot win the nomination.

In any event, with Mr McCain increasingly comfortable, he can now turn his attention to building bridges with conservatives. While the talk-show hosts remain implacably opposed to him, many other voices in the American conservative movement have evinced a willingness to talk with Mr McCain. His appearance this afternoon before a major conservative gathering will be closely watched for hints of overtures.

No clear winner

While Mr McCain tries to restore unity in his party, the risk for Democrats is that they will tear themselves apart. No clear winner emerged from Tuesday's voting. Nor is there any reason to expect anyone to surge in the weeks ahead. Mrs Clinton enjoys an edge with delegates, but Mr Obama has the momentum.

The contests in coming weeks tilt in his favour; he is doing better in fund-raising and lining up endorsements; and the slower pace of the campaign now that Super Tuesday is out of the way bodes well for him, given that the more of Mr Obama people see, the more they like.

But if the contest may start going Mr Obama's way, it is unlikely he will be able to score a knockout punch pressure may build on Mrs Clinton to withdraw from the race if her rival overtakes her in the competition for delegates, she is not likely to bow out. She is a fierce competitor, and it is hard to imagine that she and her husband will just bow out of this election.

As the stakes get ever higher, therefore, the Democratic contest may get nastier. Serious fissures have opened in the party, as voting has begun to divide along the lines of race and gender. If, as is possible, the campaign goes right up to next summer's convention, the party may have little time left before the election to mend its wounds.

So while the Republican Party is equally divided - perhaps even more so - it will probably enjoy the luxury of time to heal its wounds. The prospects of a McCain presidency are looking better with each passing week.

The principal consolation for Democrats may be that young voters are showing less inclination towards the identity politics that is dividing their party. But they will probably not be able to tip the balance for another four years.

John Rapley is president of the Caribbean Policy Research Institute, a think tank affiliated to UWI, Mona.