John Rapley

"You'll eat humble pie!" I was told over my prediction that Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination in the US presidential campaign. I could only reply that as an Obama enthusiast, if served humble pie in his honour, I would happily take a second helping!

Watching as Mr Obama romped to lopsided victories in Tuesday's primaries, I couldn't help but wonder if it was time to revise my prediction. Just as my predictions that George W. Bush would win both 2000 and 2004 elections weren't based on my hopes, but on my readings of the data, my prediction of a Hillary win reflects anything but my own wishes. Until Tuesday night, I stood by it.

However, as I saw the vote totals climb, and listened to the speeches, I found myself wondering what options the Clinton campaign had left to thwart Mr Obama's rise. It tried the inevitability act; Mr Obama tore it to ribbons. The campaign then turned negative. That backfired, and pundits said nasty doesn't work against hope. Finally, the Clintons pulled the long-awaited race card from their sleeve. Critics roared at their ploy, but it finally seemed to do the trick: the Democratic electorate began to polarise along racial lines, to Hillary's advantage.

Winning race after race

Until Tuesday night, that is. Exit polls revealed that Mr Obama made back a lot of the support he lost to Hillary Clinton among white voters, in particular. He is winning race after race, and may well do so for the next couple of weeks, at least. The talk now is of "momentum".

Commentators suggest a string of big wins could give Mr Obama the mantle of invincibility which Mrs Clinton long ago lost, enabling him to break for the finish line.

My heart and mind are fighting this one out. Like so many people, I have had high hopes for Mr Obama since his celebrated convention speech four years ago. He is on a roll, racking up delegates, turning out crowds.

Still, it is too soon to write an obituary for Mrs Clinton's presidential campaign. They are staking everything on holding the line early next month when Texas and Ohio hold their primaries. If - and it's a big 'if' - Mrs Clinton can stem the Obama advance at that point, she has one hope left.

Lead inching up

It is this: Despite his big wins, Mr Obama's lead in delegates is inching up slowly. Were his momentum to slow while his delegate-lead remained small, Mrs Clinton could then do two things to regain the lead. First, she could argue for the inclusion of delegates from Florida and Michigan. Second, she could rely on her husband to win 'superdelegates' from the party establishment. Apparently, Bill's silence of late is no accident. He is busy working the phone lines to the party insiders who could break the tie at the party convention.

Many will loudly condemn this strategy for its cynicism, and for being anti-democratic. It would hardly be the first time the Clintons were accused of base motives. But sentiment and principle aside, the numbers suggest that Hillary still has a chance of pulling this off.

As for Mrs Clinton's political obituary, I actually wrote that several years ago. It is sitting on my desk, awaiting the day I have always predicted the sun would finally set on the Clintons' reign over the Democratic Party: the morning after the 2008 election. Until then, I still reason, we have to put up with them just a bit longer.

And if I'm faced with that bit of humble pie come November, I doubt I'll have an appetite to eat much of anything!