John Rapley

OTTAWA, Canada:

It seems the good child does not get the attention of the troublemaker. One can be forgiven for not noticing that, while the United States (US) is running an election campaign, so, too, is Canada. Even many Canadians are taking little note of their own election, as riveted as they are by the American one.

During the roaring '90s, when the US lifted controls on the financial sector and inflated stock and real estate bubbles, Canada quietly paid down its debt. Then, when one bust after another began rocking the US, Canada sailed along quietly.

Now, as the US candidates argue over trillion-dollar bail-outs of billionaire bankers, Canadians have to consider merely whether they want more of the same: prudent, unspectacular government.

Most Canadians seem content, so there's little left to debate. The country has spent the last two years being governed by a Conservative minority.

If the Conservatives are more right-wing than the mainstream of Canadian opinion, the Canadian left has fragmented among four parties: the traditionally dominant Liberals; the social-democratic New Democratic Party; the new kids on the block, Green Party, and, in Quebec, the pro-independence Bloc Quebecois.

Maintain current arrangement

This fragmentation has resulted in a right-wing government too weak to make radical changes to the Canadian system, which is less enamoured of unfettered markets than the US, but strong enough to keep the Liberals out of office. The key question in this election really appears to be whether or not Canadians opt to maintain this arrangement, or decide they are sufficiently pleased with the Conservatives to allow them a majority.

In government, the Conservatives have moved closer to the centre. In the process, they appear to have mollified many Canadians. Yet, the fact is that the Conservatives register the support of barely two-fifths of Canadian voters. Most voters would prefer not to have a Conservative majority. But there is no clear alternative.

The Liberals, who have governed Canada throughout most of its history, will try to make the argument that a vote for the NDP or Greens is a vote for the Conservatives (and, in Quebec, for the Bloc Quebecois). Their best hope at this stage is to instil enough fear of a Conservative majority that they can hold their seats in Parliament. That improves Liberal chances of rebuilding and coming back into power in a couple of years.

Tired of liberals' complacency

To Jamaicans, this might sound vaguely familiar: a long-governing party, recently sent into exile, clings to the hope of coming back to power because the existing government inspires little love in the hearts of the population. We talk of Jamaica being 'PNP country'. In Canada, the term often used for the Liberals is the 'natural party of government'.

But while most Canadians have little love of the Conservatives, there is not enough of a wave for the Liberals to ride back to power. Most Canadians are tired of the Liberals who grew complacent and corrupt after years in office.

The old saying is that in a democracy, you get the government you deserve. Canadians still don't feel they deserve a Liberal administration, and they clearly don't believe the Liberals have yet earned back the right to the job.

So, while they may not love the Conservatives, the ruling party has done enough to prevent Canadians kicking them out. Beloved or not, the Conservatives may be able to keep hanging around the prime minister's stately offices for a while.

There may just be a lesson for the PNP in that. An unloved government might not be enough to bring a party back to office, if it cannot persuade its countrymen that it has earned the job.

John Rapley is president of Caribbean Research Institute, an independent think tank affiliated to the UWI, Mona. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.