American political pundits like to scour presidential debates for snapshot moments which define or turn an election: Nixon's rumpled look in 1960; Reagan's folksy "There you go again" in 1980; George W. Bush's peering at his wristwatch in 1992.

At the conclusion of Tuesday's second debate between Barack Obama and John McCain, some appeared to wonder if McCain's reference to his opponent as "that one" might emerge as such a moment: a small incident which embodies bigger meanings.

McCain's disdain for his opponent was palpable. McCain frequently regards his political foes with contempt, as Mitt Romney - his opponent in the Republican primaries - can attest. But in a campaign that is turning decidedly negative, as the Republican attack machine tries to portray Obama as 'not like us', many may interpret it as a racially tinged condescension.

Yet even people who see no pernicious motives in McCain's derision will likely see him as out of touch. Barack Obama, who has so far run an almost flawless campaign, abandoned the soaring rhetoric of his speeches after the convention to focus on the policy-wonkery of numbers, facts and calm reassurance. He has had to confront the image the Republicans try to paint of him as nothing but a vapid celebrity. Polls indicate he has been succeeding.

If doubts persist among undecided voters, they are not as strong as those evinced by McCain. His dismissal, which finds little echo among either Democrats or independents, risks reinforcing the image the Obama camp has painted of McCain: out of touch and from another age.

Democratic victory

Everyone agreed that McCain needed to win the debate. With the underlying conditions favouring a Democratic victory, McCain needs a knock-out punch. While he didn't do badly in the debate, even sympathetic observers grant that he did not pull off the victory, let alone land anything like a knockout punch.

There is now only one debate left. It is probably McCain's last hope. At this stage, all Barack Obama has to do is retain his momentum in the states and avoid losing next week. Assuming he does that - and so far there is no indication that he will do anything less - he will enter the homestretch with a lead as wide as Usain handed Asafa in Beijing.

My hunch is that Obama may then use the last few weeks of his campaign to return to the inspiring speech making that entranced his followers earlier this year and whose recent absence they have been lamenting. By ensuring a high turnout among Democratic voters, and holding on to the independent voters he picked up in the debates, Obama will probably build an unassailable lead.

Two unknowns remain. First is the question of what share of the population are lying to pollsters in saying they'll support Obama. It is known in the United States that there is a share of the population who won't vote for a black man, but don't want to admit to it. Analysts have some experience with this and have developed a fair idea of how this might affect the election outcome. While the impact may whittle down Obama's lead, he appears too far ahead for it to change the outcome. Still, we have yet to witness this phenomenon on a national scale.

Offsetting it, though, is the effect a large youth turnout would have, since young voters lean strongly towards Obama. Seeing as they are not captured in most polls, just how great this effect is equally unknown. But it may cancel out the first.

All in all, this election remains Barack Obama's to lose.

John Rapley is president of Caribbean Research Institute (CaPRI) an independent research think tank affiliated to the University of the West Indies, Mona. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.