Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter

THE BRUCE Golding administration is being urged not to hit the panic button, but to begin to level with Jamaicans about the possible fallout from the crisis in the world economy.

The administration has repeatedly argued that there is no indication yet that the economic turmoil around the world will have a major negative impact on Jamaica, but participants in a Gleaner Editors' Forum yesterday challenged that claim.

Attorney-at-law and investment banker Senator Mark Golding summed up the views of the panel as he called on the Government and Opposition to join forces to battle what is becoming an economic hurricane.

"It is a good thing that we are not panicking because I don't think there is a reason to panic, but it is quite important that we take the necessary measures now to ensure that the situation in the wider economy is managed in a way that doesn't have any impact on the strength of the financial sector," Golding said.

On the cusp of recession

Mark Golding, the opposition spokesman on industry and commerce, was supported by representative of the Food and Agriculture Organisation Dr Dunstan Campbell, who warned that the world economic meltdown could hit someone living in Denham Town, west Kingston, or Mocho, Clarendon, as hard as the captains of the financial sector.

"The gains that you (Jamaica) have made in terms of poverty eradication, education and nutrition, there is a strong possibility that you may lose them in the short run and over a sustained period of time," Campbell warned.

The comments of the panellists came hours after the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Dominique Strauss-Khan, told the international media that the world was "on the cusp of recession", but could still recover.

Strauss-Khan made the declaration as he announced that the IMF had triggered an emergency finance mechanism to help countries hit by the financial crisis.

Fast becoming a human crisis

According to Strauss-Khan, the events of the last few weeks were beginning to take their toll on emerging economies as credit lines were cut and as trade was being hit by slowing demand in Western economies.

He was supported by World Bank President Robert Zoellick, who warned against letting the "financial crisis become a human crisis".

Zoellick said a drop in exports, combined with higher credit costs, would trigger business failures in the poorest economies and, in some cases, "bankrupt" countries.

Batten down

That was a note struck by Jamaican economic analyst Anne Shirley, as she addressed the Gleaner forum.

"We can't do it in a panic, but we have to start getting the information out there," Shirley said.

"I'm battening down, 'Gilbert the Second' is coming and the Government needs to level with the people and let us prepare for it."

Deputy general manager of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, Robin Levy, was not quite ready to batten down as he argued that there was not necessarily a direct correlation between the plummeting stock prices international and the recent decline in the value of the local index.

No escaping the fallout

But Levy admitted that the crisis in the US financial sector could spill over into Jamaica.

"It doesn't seem there is a high level of contagion, that is, there are not many assets that will lose value on the balance sheets of listed Jamaican companies. But, if the fundamentals are altered, we may very well see more of a correlation," Levy said.

Already, members of the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica have started to feel the pinch and CEO Sandra Glasgow said there was no escaping the fallout.

"It is going to affect every country. I don't think there is any country that is going to be immune and the sooner we recognise that and take steps, the better," Glasgow said.

She was supported by Mark Golding, who called for a united approach to deal with the problem.

"It is a time for really looking at creative ways and proactive ways of reducing the impact on the wider economy so that we can avoid any form of systemic risk down the road," Golding added.

arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com

What we must do:

Investors must look at public companies closely and choose where best to put their money.

A manual for backyard farming should be developed and widely distributed.

We must grow what we eat, eat what we grow.

Create opportunities for people in rural and inner-city communities to plant and produce their own food.

Develop, brand and export root crops.

Government should take the market risk off farmers and allow them to plant, marketing crops should be a state responsibility.

Government must free up land at pepper-corn rent to farmers in order to boost food production.

Expand the public safety to ensure the protection of the vulnerable.

Government and Opposition must take a non-partisan approach to address the issues.

Sports must become a tool for development and export.