Easily overshadowed by the gripping electoral drama south of its border, Canada delivered few surprises in its federal election on Tuesday night. The irony, though, is that the Canadian election may have more profound consequences for the Caribbean than the American one.

Much is made of the promise for the Caribbean in the possible election of a black, Democratic president. The truth is, there is little reason to expect a Democratic administration in the United States (US) to show much interest in the region. America is far too preoccupied with matters close to home. That is not so much the case in Canada, which on Tuesday returned the Conser-vatives to power, but still with a minority government.

The biggest loser on Tuesday night was probably Stephane Dion, the Liberal leader. A decent man with good ideas, he failed to connect with the electorate, and will struggle to retain his leadership in the face of a loss of both some seats, and some vote-share. Historically, the Liberals have been Canada's governing party. It is a far cry from their former glory to be relegated to a distant second-place. The party faithful are unlikely to put up with their loser status for long.

Sacrifice of conscience

Prime Minister Stephen Harper faces a more ambiguous outcome. On one hand, he increased the Conservative Party's share of the vote, while the number of seats he racked up came very close to a majority.

But critically, it didn't cross the line. Mr Harper called this election to end his government's minority status. His failure to win a majority in two tries will make many say that he lacks the ability to pull it off. Equally, the moderation in office of his party's right-wing policies to try and win over the centre - so vital to Canadian politics - will be criticised by the party's true believers as a sacrifice of conscience for no gain.

For their part, Canadians probably consider themselves as satisfied as they could be in the circumstances. They don't want a Liberal government, at least not yet. And, while they are generally contented with the way the Conservatives have run things, Canadians as a whole are more moderate than the party's right-wing base, and would prefer it not have a strong mandate.

A mixed result

Overall, it is a mixed result. Mr Harper has increased both his party's share of the vote, and its number of seats in parliament. But the elusive majority remains just that. Moreover, his hopes of a breakthrough in the predominantly French-speaking province of Quebec were dashed when the party lost one of the seats it had there.

Nonetheless, on balance, for the Conservatives it was a good night. Though they did poorly in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, they managed to get representation in all the major parts of the country. That makes them a truly national party - a rare feat for the Conservatives, with their strong western (and Anglophone) base.

Desire to deepen ties

For the Caribbean, despite our tendency to prefer left-leaning governments in our major industrial trading-partners, the news may actually be good. The Conservative government had shown an unusually high degree of interest in the region, and made it into a foreign-policy priority. Both in trade, and in its more generous aid plans, the Harper government has signalled a desire to deepen its ties with the region.

At a time when the Americans are likely to become ever more inward-looking, this new Canadian interest may alleviate some of the downdrafts we will feel from the increasingly cold global economic climate. Politics makes strange bedfellows, and a pro-US Conservative administration in Ottawa may yet prove a useful ally to us.

John Rapley is president of the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), an independent think tank affiliated with the UWI, Mona. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.