IT'S a long shot, but much better than the direction in which the national football team was heading.

Jamaica's Reggae Boyz, at least, have a defined passage to CONCACAF's finals, which will comprise the two top teams from the ongoing quadrangular group play-offs.

After their first three matches, the Boyz were sitting rather hopelessly at the bottom of the standings with a point from a 1-1 draw in Canada, while Mexico led with maximum nine points and Honduras trailed second with six points.

After five matches, Jamaica now have seven points, Honduras nine and Mexico 10.

Canada, who are out of contention, did Jamaica a world of good by holding Mexico to a 2-2 draw the same night Jamaica were doing what they had to, beating Honduras at 'The Office'.

What the Canada victory has done is to make Mexico's final fixture against Honduras a virtual do-or-die, since no team has qualified. The Mexicans, second-rated in CONCACAF and with their coach Sven-Goran Eriksson under much pressure back home, cannot rest on their laurels when they venture into unfriendly territory next door to face Honduras for their final fixture on November 19.

High probability

Defeat means elimination for Honduras so that is expected to be one hell of a cracker.

There is a high probability that Jamaica could end up tied for second on 10 points with any one of the countries, as long as the Reggae Boyz beat Canada to advance their tally to 10 points.

A draw in the Central-America clash would see Honduras finishing with 10 points and Mexico moving forward with 11, while a loss for Mexico would see Honduras winning the group and moving on, while Mexico would remain on 10.

At that stage, goal difference would come into play as the next tiebreaker. Mexico have a plus-four goal difference and Honduras plus three. Jamaica's goal difference is minus three as the Boyz have conceded twice as many as the three goals they have scored.

So to be certain of qualifying, a Jamaican victory by a clear margin of seven goals would be perfect.

If they fall short, and end up with the same goal difference as any of the teams, then goal difference from the head-to-head matchups would come into play. While Jamaica beat both countries by 1-0 margins, the lost the corresponding fixtures away by bigger margins - 3-0 to Mexico and 2-0 to Honduras. That's a definite no-no.

The timing of the Canada-Mexico matchup was quite good for Jamaica in that Canada already had its top players home for the weekend engagement against Honduras; and would not have had any need to even be thinking of sending for top players when they never had any chance of going forward.

Top talent

Oftentimes, when a country is certain of elimination from World Cup qualifying, they generally don't bother to send for top talent overseas. And Canada have plenty, as evidenced in the first-leg Jamaica contest when only four members named to their 18-member squad were not playing professionally in Europe.

There is much hope that with Canada already eliminated, on two points, and the majority of their top players nestled in with their clubs in Europe, they won't be called and opportunities will be provided for their North America-based players.

One way or the other, Jamaica's advancement won't be a cakewalk.

Players given a chance always have something to prove, the established ones certainly will be playing for pride and Jamaica have never inflicted any big beating on Canada.

The country, though, has transformed its position from one of hopelessness to hope, however difficult it may seem.

Additionally, the Jamaica Football Federation (JFF), is doing everything it can to enhance that position by making sure that Theodore Whitmore maintains his influence over the Boyz as head coach. Coach-in-waiting John Barnes, also, had quite sensibly gave his assessment of the situation while indicating his willingness to work with Whitmore.

Still, it's a longshot for the Boyz, but one more feasible for a desperate bettor.