Among the important tasks of governments is the management of people's expectations. They tend not to be very good at it - as the Golding administration in Jamaica is so expertly proving. The problem is that political parties, as they seek to become government, generally lift expectations beyond their capacity to deliver, or to deliver effectively.

So, they may promise free education to the level of high schools. Parents, therefore, do not expect to pay tuition or any other fees, but national budgets are incapable of carrying that increase in subventions to match the expectations of parents and guardians. Principals, in the circumstance, will impose or raise 'auxiliary fees', triggering a revolt by parents, leading to a dispute between, perhaps, head teachers and the prime minister.

Also, take the case of health care. An administration might promise free health care and genuinely believe in its capacity to deliver. But it might have not done all the work, or done it rigorously enough. More patients than projected may turn up at hospitals, placing stress on the public health-care system, while increasing demand for medicines, which the state's budget cannot afford. And so on.

Categoric promise

Karl Samuda, Jamaica's commerce and industry minister, a long-standing and astute politician, should know more than a thing or two about this. We are surprised, therefore, at his seemingly categoric promise of lower food prices for the Christmas season - and beyond.

To be fair to Mr Samuda, he is banking on lower prices for oil and other commodities traded on the global markets feeding their way back into Jamaica's domestic market. The Government's direct importation of fertiliser should help in this regard, Mr Samuda believes.

On the face of it, there is some evidence that there might be more than hope and gut in the minister's expectations. Moreover, in September, inflation moderated to 0.6 per cent, for a year-to-date movement of 16.8 per cent, well away from the seven to nine per cent that the Government initially projected and right at its revised target of 17 per cent. In September, 'food and beverage', the category in the consumer basket that takes a larger portion of people's incomes, recorded a 1.5 per cent rise in prices.

Other costs

A slowdown, even deflation, in global commodity prices may help to reverse this upward movement in domestic food and other inflation. But, as Don Wehby of the finance ministry could explain to Mr Samuda, the imported costs, although a significant part of it, are not the only factors impacting on the cost of production and the price at which goods and services are brought to market here.

Take the case of interest rates, which are substantially higher in Jamaica than its major trading partners. Rates are almost at floor levels in the United States. Last week, rates on the Jamaica Government's six-month bonds on the domestic market rose 1.6 per cent to 16.9 per cent, as investors demanded higher returns to compensate for deteriorating values caused by high inflation. The upward movement in this benchmark rate will impact on the rates at which firms - and the Government - can borrow for investment and other purposes.

Domestic inefficiencies also impact prices, so the administration, in this difficult and volatile period, should be careful about how it fuels promises and expectations.