Coleen Weise, Donovan Walker, Guest Writers
( L - R ) Obama, John McCain
In what has been dubbed the most electrifying campaign of this century to elect the 44th American president, fierce battle lines are drawn between the charismatic agent for 'change', Barack Obama, and the 'maverick' war veteran, John McCain, in the race for the White House.
The election is on Tuesday, November 4.
Local statistics have shown that over 90 per cent of Jamaicans in the American diaspora are ready to 'ink' Obama as their man for the top job and to rescue them from an imminent recession - a view understandably shared by many right here in Jamaica.
But, whichever candidate wins, there could be repercussions for Jamaica from the new president's policy on immigration, foreign relations and trade.
THE OBAMA PANACEA
Obama has been a staunch advocate of a comprehensive immigration reform which will allow illegal immigrants who satisfy certain prerequisites, the opportunity to become United States citizens.
Undoubtedly, this will work to the advantage of thousands of Jamaicans who are currently living 'below the radar' on American shores to finally have their status legalised.
On the issue of trade, Obama has pledged to pursue an aggressive trade policy, which he has envisaged will result in the opening of foreign markets to goods and services from the US with the overriding interest of preserving jobs in the US.
This policy is a two-edged sword as same could possibly put Jamaican jobs at risk; on the other hand, such a move could prove beneficial to the Jamaican economy as the possibility would then exist for entering free trade agreements with the US with greater access for Jamaican goods and services.
One specific concern on trade has to do with Jamaica's preferential export of ethanol under the Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act (CBERA), which could be threatened as Obama is noted to be in support of protection for the US' corn ethanol industry and is opposed to the importation of sugar cane ethanol.
Tax reform
A major thrust of Obama's campaign has been in the area of tax reform where he proposes to reduce taxes for those earning less than US$250,000 per annum.
It is anticipated that with this proposal, scores of Jamaicans in the US who earn under US$250,000 would be in a position to increase remittances to relatives in Jamaica.
In the area of foreign policy, Obama's manifesto states that he intends to spearhead the cause for sustainable debt relief to developing countries. In this regard, there will be a more direct focus on 100 per cent debt forgiveness for some of the most Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) which would include Caribbean neighbours Guyana, Haiti and, oddly, St Lucia.
Additionally, Obama wants to double worldwide foreign assistance to US$50 billion by 2012 and there is some potential for assistance to Jamaica in this regard.
An issue of concern is that Obama intends to (from a foreign aid perspective) 'leverage' on the billions of US dollars in remittances made from individuals in the United States to countries worldwide, Jamaica included.
It is not clear what Obama means by 'leverage' but it could be that he intends to 'treat' private remittances as contributing to "foreign aid".
Finally, Obama has commented that he is suspicious of the offshore industry in many of our Caribbean countries, and which Jamaica is giving consideration to developing. How an Obama presidency will affect the offshore industry is presently not clear, but the Jamaican government should perhaps take a wait-and-see approach.
THE MCCAIN APPROACH
Unlike his Democratic opponent who favours a comprehensive immigration regime, Senator McCain is in favour of stricter immigration and border patrol measures aimed at strengthening America's borders against illegal immigrants.
There is also a secondary initiative to have undocumented immigrants register in a strict programme leading to citizenship.
While there are no immediate and direct benefits to illegal Jamaican immigrants in the US, it is hoped that these policies may benefit undocumented immigrants.
As it relates to trade, McCain is an ardent proponent of free trade and renewing efforts to establish a Free Trade Area of the Americas.
He is of the view that the US should position itself to enter into a series of multilateral, regional as well as bilateral agreements to foster greater trade relationships and reduce trade barriers. Based on this approach, there is the scope for Jamaica to benefit from entering trade agreements with our US counterpart.
Further, under a possible McCain administration, Jamaica's preferential exports of ethanol under CBERA would remain protected, based on the premise that McCain opposes protecting and subsidising the American farming industry.
As it relates to the area of foreign policy, with the exception of Cuba-US relations, the Caribbean generally was not at the forefront of McCain's vision for the US. Instead, greater focus was placed on relations with Iraq, Iran, and the other middle eastern countries.
POLICIES VAGUE
In concluding, it is clear that Jamaica and the wider Caribbean is no longer an area of focus for US presidential candidates, at least when compared to the recent past.
At best, the stated policies on the Caribbean, by both Obama and McCain, are vague with very little substance.
We await a clear and detailed formulation of hemispheric policy of the new president, come January 2009.
One thing is certain, irrespective of the outcome of the presidential elections next Tuesday, there will continue to be challenges and opportunities awaiting Jamaicans at home and those in the diaspora.
There will be no miracle cure for Jamaica's economic ailments and none has been promised.
Coleen T. Weise and Donovan C. Walker are attorneys-at-law practicing at DunnCox in Kingston. Email: coleen.weise@dunncox.com.
