Wayne Dass, head of CariCRIS. - contributed

CariCRIS says it will maintain credit ratings on all countries and organisation, following a review of their exposure to the global economic meltdown.

No country within the Caribbean will be immune from impact, or escape contagion, the regional rating agency said, adding that Jamaica is likely to be most affected.

"On the surface, the Caribbean seems to have weathered the storm thus far but, in this period of exceptional uncertainty, downside risks are substantial," said CariCRIS in a statement.

CariCRIS has not rated Jamaica as a sovereign but has reviewed some six Jamaican-based companies.

The economic meltdown began in the United States and quickly spread to major financial centres around the world.

It emerged Monday that the United States has been in recession since December 2007.

Global growth forecast for 2009 has been cut to 2.2 per cent. In the Caribbean, growth has been revised to two per cent.

"We expect Jamaica to be most affected because of its modest and deteriorating international liquidity, large current account deficit, high inflation, onerous debt burden and stalled economic growth," said CariCRIS.

Oil- and gas-rich Trinidad & Tobago will likely prove to be one of the more resilient economies, the ratings agency added.

Still, the twin-island state has not been immune.

On Monday Prime Minister Patrick Manning announced a cut in spending, targeted at infrastructure projects.

Crisis

CariCRIS, in its statement, said the banks are likely to come through the crisis relatively unscathed, but may see an erosion of profits loan losses and decline in investment portfolios.

"For the most part, the banking sector has entered this period of turmoil from a position of strength. Banks are well capitalised, liquid and profitable and funded mainly through domestic deposits," said the Port-of-Spain-based agency.

"Stress tests show that our rated banks have sufficient net worth to absorb interest rate shocks in the order of three to five per cent."

Other firms within the broader financial sector have reported that their exposure has no material impact on capital.

Manufacturers on CariCRIS' ratings list, however, face a likely decline in sales revenue, by 15 to 20 per cent, because of falling consumer demand.

business@gleanerjm.com