Bartlett

Early reported signs of a near one third fall off in tourism business in the winter season have been knocked by tourism minister Edmund Bartlett as overly pessimistic.

Instead, Jamaica will likely experience a 10 per cent to 15 per cent decline, he told Wednesday Business.

But the Jamaica Hotel and Tourist Association (JHTA), while declining to comment on the minister's figures, is maintaining that its members are faced with a 30 per cent fall-off in bookings for the season.

The winter tourist season runs from December 15 to April 15, and has traditionally been the most lucrative for hotels and others in the hospitality sector.

Virtual lockdown

Bartlett says that were the sector to lose 30 per cent of business, it would translate to a virtual lockdown.

He did not, however, provide a breakdown of his numbers, but his estimate is likely to extend beyond the accommodations sector to cruise and attractions.

"The very worst we are seeing is somewhere in the region of 10 to 15 per cent. However, the process remains fluid as we are in a buyers' market and therefore decisions are made at later point than before," Bartlett told Wednesday Business in a interview yesterday.

Still JHTA president Wayne Cummings says the 30 per cent drop in forward bookings - used by hotels to forecast the industry's performance - remained the same as indicated at the beginning of the month.

Cummings said he would not comment on Bartlett's estimate, but noted that assuming the minister was right, hotels were still faced with the possibility of lower yields or revenue per tourist this season because of heavy discounting to bring business into the island.

Hotels have lowered prices by as much as 60 per cent to entice vacationers, Cummings said.

Bartlett meantime said there were other means, other than forward bookings which are done through travel agents and tour companies to track the industry, and that it was unwise to use it as the indicator of future performance.

"Forward bookings is no longer the main basis on which we judge how the season is going to turn out because people are buying more spontaneously in response to prices and deals," said Bartlett.

Internet bookings, he added, was a growing trend.

"With forward bookings, the further down you look the more dismal it appears because we are in a buyers' market where people are looking for deals so they don't make decisions two or three months down the road," he said. "They are going on the Internet and they are looking for the best prices."

Expected business

Some hotels are reporting lower than expected business.

Fiesta Hotel, for example, which opened six months ago, has 1,056 rooms but only about 50 per cent occupancy.

"We would have been happy to have a 100 per cent occupancy, which is basically what we expected to happen but certainly with the advent of what have taken place in North America and, more so, the United States, it is not as good as we had expected it to be," said Sonia Rickards, corporate communications consultant for the hotel.

"We don't have a full house - as a matter of fact, we have half a full house basically speaking - and therefore all we have to do is to ensure that we are extremely busy in the marketplace to see through the rest of the winter season," she added.

Still, Bartlett's office on Tuesday released a statement pointing to an upswing in arrivals through the Sangster International Airport - the main gateway for stopover tourists - in December.

There were 108, 537 visitor arrivals from December 1-28, up from 98,706 for the same period last year. "Additionally, Montego Bay also registered record visitor arrivals, approximately 7,400 on Saturday, December 20 alone, and 7, 259 arrivals on Saturday, December 27," Bartlett's office said.

Cummings said the business in the hotels is attribut-able to heavy discounting.

Heavy discounts

Cummings

"A lot of what is taking place out in the market is such heavy discounts of up to 60 per cent to excite the market and some of these people are actually seeing bounces in the bookings," he told Wednesday Business.

"Now, let's say my 30 per cent is off and it is less," he said, "it is being replaced by lower rates then the room rate yield would now be down. So what you are getting is a give or take. You may get occupancy at a lower rate. Therefore, none of us is wrong," he said.

The industry, he added, will end up earning less this season, no matter the basis on which performance is forecast.

"The minister may well end up being right at 15 per cent, but at a lower yield than we got last year; so all in all we may still have the same position I am predicting."

dionne.rose@gleanerjm.com.