• ...predicts political analyst; 11 seats for JLP, 1 for NDM
  

When the polls close tomorrow and the votes are tallied the People's National Party (PNP) may well have wrapped up a third term with 48 won seats, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) with 11 and the National Democratic Movement (NDM) with one, and the bet is on as to which one it is.

The Gleaner's political analyst, Tony Myers believes that by midnight Thursday the PNP will put daylight between itself and the other parties giving it a third term, with incumbent Prime Minister P. J. Patterson getting his second. Late former Prime Minister Michael Manley put the party back in government when he won the general elections of March 1993.

The party, always in opposition at significant points in the country's political history expects to be written in the history books as the one which guided the country into the new millennium. And if the predictions are correct the PNP is expected to have sown up 38 seats comfortably by midnight Thursday, the JLP 3 and the NDM one.

Mr. Myers is projecting that the PNP will win a minimum of 42 seats against 8 for the JLP. Of the remaining 10 seats which he claims are borderline the PNP are likely to get six, the JLP three and the NDM one.

The PNP is expected to win comfortably 9 of the 16 seats in the powerful Region Three to the JLP's one. Eastern St. Andrew which has the PNP's Colin Campbell up against JLP chairman Percy Broderick which is presented as a marginal seat, at the end of the day the incumbent Campbell is expected to retain. However, the opposite is expected in North Western St. Andrew, where incumbent Derrick Smith is expected to keep Dr. Jephtah Ford from going into Gordon House once again.

West Rural St. Andrew, North Eastern St. Andrew and North Central St. Andrew could go either way, according to the predictions. Mr. Neil Seaton is the JLP candidate and Vernon Robinson is the PNP's incumbent in West Rural St. Andrew. In North Eastern St. Andrew the hard working Delroy Chuck is expected to oust a Karlene Kirlew-Robertson while, Karl Samuda, the star in a PNP political sitcom may well create history in winning the seat for the JLP, the PNP and again for the JLP. He is up against, Sonia Witter-Rickards for the PNP. The NDM is not expected to be a factor in any of these constituencies.

The PNP is predicted to sweep St. Thomas, Portland, Hanover and Westmoreland and win two of the St. Mary seats. South East St. Mary with the PNP's deputy general secretary Harry Douglas up against the JLP's Don Creary could go either way. It is also expected to take three of the four in St. Ann. One of the two in Trelawny will be won by the PNP with the NDM's Brasco Lee in the fight of his political career for the NDM in South Trelawny.

It will win three in St. James with East Central going either way. It will win three in Manchester and the Peart brothers, Michael and Dean is also expected to write their own piece of history as the only two brothers to win back to back seats in general elections. It will take three of the four in St. Elizabeth with North Western St. Elizabeth going either way. A battle royale is expected in the parish of Clarendon with two of the six seats clear PNP wins, three marginal and one borderline.

The parish of St. Catherine which features some 12 women will see the PNP winning five of the eight seats. Two will be straight fights between the JLP and PNP and Central St. Catherine, that represented by NDM's president Bruce Golding, the outcome of which could determine if he has committed political suicide. He is up against the JLP's Olivia "Babsy" Grange.